The balance of risk remained to the down side for earnings, given currency pressure and HGL's limited pricing power in the apparel retail model, she said.
HGL said in a statement to the NZX group that sales for the first 16 weeks of the new financial year, from August 1 to November 22, were 3.1% up on the previous corresponding period.
Intense competition had meant sales were achieved at the expense of margin compared with the same period last year, HGL chief executive Graeme Popplewell said.
The impact of the weaker New Zealand and Australian dollars was starting to exert margin pressure and the ability to raise prices to compensate was limited.
It was not possible to take any real inference for the total summer season from the latest numbers because the December period contributed such a large proportion of sales and profit for the season, he said.
Ms Kinnaird said HGL was one of the retailers most at risk from a weaker dollar and pressure from online sales.
''Consumers are likely to be more resistant to higher prices in a globally competitive world. We expect some cost recovery, given a focus to mitigate the impact of the adverse currency movement. However, we do not expect HGL to be able to recoup the full amount.''
Forsyth Barr's 2016 financial year assumptions were for sales growth of 3.9% and a gross margin fall, she said.
