Central bank rate announcements tomorrow

Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen. Photo: Reuters
Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen. Photo: Reuters

Tomorrow has been labelled Super Thursday because from 6am, three central banks are due to make interest rate announcements.

The first will be the Federal Reserve in the United States announcing its decisions.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said it was unlikely there would be a change to US monetary policy.

The expectation was there would be a reiteration of the need for caution and the Fed would likely adopt a graduated approach to the normalisation of monetary policy.

There would be no press conference by Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen, or any updated economic projections. The focus would be on the wording of the statement, which was likely to be in line with recent comments from key Fed speakers.

The market was not projecting any chance of another rate hike from the Fed this week with the probability rising to 20% for the June meeting and to 47% for September, he said.

Next up, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would release its official cash rate review at 9am.

‘‘This is the key event on the local agenda and, at this stage, it's anyone's guess as to whether there will be a cut or not. The market is currently pricing in a 49% chance a cut will occur at this meeting, slightly lower than in the preceding weeks after a longer-than-expected inflation report.''

The Reserve Bank had clearly signalled one more cut was coming, although the timing was unclear.

‘‘They could choose to to wait until June, which makes some sense as that would also be a Monetary Policy Statement, or they could simply elect to move swiftly and go this week.''

Last, but definitely not least, was the Bank of Japan, he said. The announcement would come in the afternoon and could see further stimulus measures put in place.

The Bank of Japan had already introduced negative interest rates and had a ‘‘pretty hefty'' quantitative easing, or bond buying, programme in place.

However, recent comments from governor Haruhiko Kuroda had indicated the Japan central bank was not afraid to increase stimulus further this week to stimulate the economy, take some heat out of the yen and get inflation back in line with targeted rates, Mr Timms said.

Despite ramping up efforts to stimulate the economy, and introducing negative interest rates in January, the yen had risen nearly 10% this year against the US dollar.

It remained a big problem for the Bank of Japan as the currency strength threatened to undermine its attempt to bring Japan's inflation rate back to 2% by 2017, he said.

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