Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said the warm autumn so far had prompted concern for Kathmandu's winter season.
"Kathmandu has just introduced its winter range in store, with the weather through June and July, its winter sale period, significantly more important.''
She believed Kathmandu shares had fallen further than justified, trading around $1.57 yesterday. The year low was $1.25 in June last year and a $1.82 high was struck last August.
"Weather forecasters are predicting a warmer winter, on average, with higher rainfall across both Australia and New Zealand,'' she said.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said the main risk for Kathmandu, and Craigs' earnings estimates and valuation, would be the effect of the weather during the key winter sale period.
"Kathmandu expects second-half 2016 gross margins to be under pressure as the favourable hedging profile rolls off. The company also reiterated its focus on cost savings and efficiency improvements to support gross margins,'' he said.
In February, a year on from a shock profit warning and having fended off a hostile takeover bid, Kathmandu's chief executive, Xavier Simonet, had some positive news, saying the company's Christmas and January trading was in line with expectations.
However, Mr Simonet cautioned in February the full-year profit result remained dependent on successful second-half trading, when about 55% of sales were made and between about 65% and 70% of overall earnings.
Mrs Kinnaird said, "It is still too early to assess how winter will pan out, with one cold snap enough to make a meaningful difference for Kathmandu earnings.''
Lacklustre sales periods and last year's mild winter left Kathmandu with higher-than-expected stock inventories, which meant when the stock had to be priced lower to clear, profit margins were pared back.
In the face of lacklustre sales and declining market capitalisation, Briscoe Group made a hostile 100% takeover bid for Kathmandu for $362 million in the middle of last year, but that had fallen flat by mid-September, largely on shareholder disinterest in the implied $1.80 per share, which carried only a 20c cash component.
Mrs Kinnaird said Kathmandu had a volatile earnings history and the market wanted confirmation it could recover from the weak trading seen in full-year 2015.
Its near-term earnings were important for sentiment, but she noted Kathmandu was "more than a one-year business'', with value in its leading market position, strong brand, vertically integrated model and loyalty database.
