Climate change message no easier

Prof Rob Lawson (left) of the University of Otago marketing department waits with climatologist Dr James Hansen while a technological hitch is repaired before Dr Hansen gave a lecture to about 1000 people at the university last night. Photo by Linda Robertson.
Prof Rob Lawson (left) of the University of Otago marketing department waits with climatologist Dr James Hansen while a technological hitch is repaired before Dr Hansen gave a lecture to about 1000 people at the university last night. Photo by Linda Robertson.
It is fortunate for the world that "the grandfather of climate change", Dr James Hansen, is a stubborn man.

Nearly a quarter of a century ago, he stood in front of the United States Congress and gave a speech which helped bring global warming to the world's attention.

At the time, getting the message across was challenging. Many called the leading climatologist a doom-sayer.

And as time had passed, the challenge had not become any easier, he said.

"It's become easier in the sense that more scientists are coming on board and studying climate change.

"But the opposition from politicians has not been easier. You would think as more scientific information comes along, people would be more accepting.

"But politicians resist the scientific implications because it would have economic impacts on nations.

"We're not doing so well. The resistance from people who want to continue business as usual is strong."

The 70-year-old New Yorker is in New Zealand to deliver a series of public addresses on Human made climate change - A scientific, moral and legal issue, in a bid to keep his message in the public mind.

Dr Hansen has already given the lecture in Auckland, Palmerston North and Wellington, where there had been some opposition to his views.

But on the whole, his lecture at the University of Otago last night was popular, and those there were well educated and respectful.

About 1000 people crammed into five different lecture theatres on campus to hear Dr Hansen. It was one of the largest lectures to be given this year.

Only a minor upset was caused by a temporary breakdown of the video link which broadcast his lecture to four of the theatres.

Dr Hansen said the most extreme opposition to his views happened recently in West Virginia where he tried to give a speech at an open microphone session outside a school.

The school was situated below a pond which contained water which had been used to wash coal from a local mine.

"I was trying to talk about the dangers of the pond to the school and the regional destruction by mining there.

"Some local coal miners came down on motorcycles and sat there revving the engines so no-one could hear what I was saying."

Dr Hansen's answer was to sit outside the school as part of his protest against the mining, until he was arrested by police for his efforts.

"I'm still awaiting trial in West Virginia," he said.

His protest action was on the upper end of the scale of actions he has taken to make himself heard. More often, he tried to address the issues that "contrarians" raised, he said.

"I don't expect to change his mind, but I hope to make others realise that what he is saying is not right."

 

The second great disappointment

James Hansen and his followers seem to be heading for another Great Disappointment. The first Great Disappointment was a day in 1844 when the predictions of the return of Jesus, and Christians being carried into heaven, did not happen. The believers were ridiculed.

The Global Warming prophets of doom should be aware by now that the predicted human induced warming isn't coming. The signs are clear:

- No significant rising (or falling) trend of global air temperatures for the last 10 year; - No significant warming of the oceans for the last 8 years. (Big disparity with the GISS model); -  The absence of the prophesied hotspot in the upper troposphere (at about 11km). This shows that there is no climate feedback (temperature amplification), an essential part of the global warming models.

The question is: where is the warming?

Wrong again

Dr Hansen is currently director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) (part of NASA) and one of their most spectacular errors is the prediction of the Global Ocean Heat Content (sea temperature). Their prediction, compared to the cold hard reality of actual measurements, is out by 40 billion terajoules. This is said to be enough heat to melt the whole of the Greenland icesheet.

40 billion terajoules is the difference between the trend predicted by GISS over the last 8 years and the energy measured by the ARGO network of ocean temperature instruments. Here is the graph. Discussion, here at wattsupwiththat.com ("The GISS divergence problem").

This result proves that the radiative forcing predicted by Dr Hansen's Global Warming Theory is wrong. No ocean warming means no man-made greenhouse gas warming. Good news.

Because

When Hansen started investigating the issue we had very little (almost no) data to go on. The reason we should have confidence in him is that, despite this, he got so much right.

 

Hansen's past predictions were wrong

Why should we have any confidence in James Hansen's predictions of doom when his past predictions have been so wrong?

A compelling message

Over 1000 people came to hear world famous Dr James Hansen last night speak about climate change and the effect it will have on the lives of our grandchildren.

A great pity the ODT could not report on the content of his talk, rather just a light weight side story.

I watched the talk on a live stream from home. For those of you who missed the talk I believe it will be available for a month at:

http://www.otago.ac.nz/its/mediaproduction/streaming/

I watched it on Quad4 rather than St David550.

Growing the economy

Dr Hansen gave an informative review of the data regarding climate change. I personally have little doubt that human-driven climate change is real and that its going to cause big problems.

He had another message - that we have a moral duty to our children to do something about this. This I do not doubt either. Unfortunately, there is no reason for optimism. Dr Hansen avoided pessimism but pointed out that little of substance had been done on energy policy.

I also think that the moral duty to our children compell people to operate in quite the opposite direction. People generally want to leave their children as wealthy as possible. Oil and coal are key drivers of economies, and in the face of competition between nations and people it is hard to see how workable economic policy can actually start penalising fossil fuel usage. Malaysia, for example, actually subsidises petrol prices in order to stimulate their economy. Would you rather pay a $1 a litre or $2.50 for your fuel?

If we abandoned all economic borders, had a one world government and put past national loyalties aside then we could have a workable global energy policy. That isn't going to happen. Our best bet may to be invest in nuclear technologies and reduce the unnecessary costly regulations covering this energy source.

Minor upset?

Nearly 600 people in the University's premier lecture theatre got to watch (for about 45 minutes) 5 or 6 A/V technicians fail to get the video link working.  The organisers then took Dr Hansen to present from a different lecture theatre.

The audience in St David were then asked to move to two "tiny" lecture theatres adjacent (capacity about 120) or walk aross campus to the other theatres (which were already full).  Many people left at this point (and I discovered that several seemingly mild-mannered Dunedin residents know some quite interesting words).

"Debacle" is closer to the mark than "minor upset"

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