The expected result deteriorated by $1 million in the past month, driven by overspending at Dunedin Hospital.
The largest single overrun was $3.2 million year-to-date on doctors' wages. The nursing budget is under-spent by just over $1 million, although the DHB is concerned at a recent increase in nursing staff.
Helping the position was continued savings in mental health and the community sector, meaning the funding arm was expected to finish the year $4.8 million better than budget, although still with a $6.2 million deficit.
The provider arm, related to hospital services, was "significantly worse" than expected, projecting a $4.4 million deficit, rather than a hoped for surplus. In a "worst case", the provider arm could slip to a $5.5 million deficit during the last two months of the financial year.
In April, the provider arm was $1.3 million in deficit.
As well as doctors' wages, overspending included Otago allied health personnel (excluding mental health) $1.3 million, and Otago patient treatment disposable costs $1.1 million.
Providing a "financial buffer" was underspending on Otago clinical supplies ($1.1 million), Southland medical personnel (including outsourced costs) $800,000, and Southland nursing (excluding mental health) $700,000.
Increasing personnel costs were a financial risk for the board, the report said.
"While components of this [full-time equivalent staff] can be offset by cost decreases or revenue increases, this level of FTE places the DHB at risk not only for the current year, but the next financial year if the FTE levels were to continue [to rise]," finance and funding general manager Robert Mackway-Jones said in his report.
Staffing had increased 120 FTE this financial year, with a 73 FTE increase in the four months from January.
The big increases were in junior doctors, and nurses.
The DHB was also carrying $28 million in leave liabilities, of which $22.7 million was annual leave.
In a report to tomorrow's hospital advisory committee, senior business analyst Grant Paris said that while junior doctor FTEs had been increasing since the start of the financial year, only recently had nursing and allied health crept up. Numbers were up this financial year in nursing (3.7%), doctors (5.4%) and allied health (4.2%).
Nurses had been recruited partly to address increased patient need, but work was under way to "fully understand" it.
The financial impact of annual leave being 9% less than budget was difficult to assess, as it depended on whether the person was covered while on holiday.
Mr Paris said both Dunedin and Southland hospitals were "pushing" to achieve government targets for surgical wait lists, resulting in higher outsourcing costs. If achieved, the DHB would receive a $580,000 bonus. Outsourced services were $280,000 over budget in April.
