Marketing push met with caution

Shamubeel Eaqub
Shamubeel Eaqub
Lower property prices give regional cities like Dunedin a necessary edge against big-city competitors, independent economist Shamubeel Eaqub says.

Mr Eaqub, of Auckland, said a new marketing push by the Dunedin City Council to attract Auckland residents to move south risked driving up the cost of real estate without pushing up incomes.

‘‘If you only attract demand but you're not able to provide any supply, then all you're doing is driving up the cost of housing and it only benefits a very small number of people who own property.''

Some Otago Daily Times letter writers have expressed concern that the marketing campaign risked encouraging speculation in the housing market.

Anecdotally, Dunedin's property market is receiving a moderate boost from Auckland housing money flowing to provincial New Zealand.

In the year to December, the city's average house value rose 5.7% to more than $308,000, with the biggest rise in Central and North (7.9%), Quotable Value figures show. Mr Eaqub said rising property prices in themselves did not make a city richer.

If the council's strategy worked, and incomes were pushed up, it could be a success story, but it was difficult for councils to ‘‘play God'' with market forces, he warned.

‘‘I don't think there is any evidence of a Government-induced programme that has reversed a trend.

‘‘But you can work really hard to do everything in your power to give your city the best chance that it has.'

'Mr Eaqub believed the sky-high house prices in Auckland had distorted New Zealanders' view of the property market.

‘‘Even in the regions where we say it's cheap, it's not that cheap, relative to incomes.

‘‘The extreme prices in Auckland has given us a distorted view of what cheap is.

‘‘My argument for provincial New Zealand is they need to compensate for the other weaknesses they have.''

There was no silver bullet and a marketing push had to be part of a strategy to make it easier to do business in the city, he said. It had to emphasise Dunedin as a place to live, rather than just a place to buy property, he said.

Having decent infrastructure, permit and consent processes in place would help, he said. Asked if the Syrian refugees coming to Dunedin would provide a stimulus, Mr Eaqub said they would in the short term, because of the financial support they received from the Government.

‘‘The big ultimate question is whether or not those refugees will be able to integrate into the community and into the labour force.''

The impact of refugees tended to be positive for the economy, but it took time.

‘‘They are coming from an extraordinarily traumatic past.''

Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull said the marketing campaign's primary aim was attracting people - not just money - to the city.

‘‘What we're basically selling is lifestyle - we've got really good recreational, cultural and educational facilities.''

If property prices rose as a consequence - and they were rising anyway - it would be worth it.

‘‘Are people saying that we're better to have the population shrinking so that house prices stay low because there's no demand?

‘‘The bottom line is Dunedin needs more people for us to have a sustainable economy.''

He did not think the city had a housing supply issue.‘‘There's plenty of capacity for new housing in Dunedin at the moment.

‘‘If our population took a big jump, we might have to have another look at that, but at the moment, there is enough capacity.''

Mr Cull was sceptical of anecdotal reports that significant numbers of Auckland investors were eyeing up the city for rental returns or capital gain.

Methodist Mission chief executive Laura Black said she was not opposed to property price rises as long as they accompanied higher wages and more opportunities.

The city needed more lower-skilled and entry-level jobs, she said. She was keen on the idea of attracting people to Dunedin who had the ability to start businesses and diversify the economy.

The campaign launches later this week as a supplement in The New Zealand Herald.

-eileen.goodwin@odt.co.nz

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