Dunedin will have to "roll with the punch" when hit by
climate change - riding out higher seas, more severe flooding
and a host of other challenges, a leading New Zealand
climatologist says.
The assessment from University of Otago climatologist
Emeritus Prof Blair Fitzharris came last week as world
leaders in Copenhagen convened to thrash out a global
agreement to protect the environment.
Prof Fitzharris, a climatologist for 42 years, was the
convening lead author for the Australia and New Zealand
chapter of the latest global report from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
He has also just been commissioned by the Dunedin City
Council to prepare a report on the likely impact of climate
change in Dunedin.
Speaking from his Queenstown home, Prof Fitzharris said civic
leaders and their communities needed to think about
adaptation - learning to live with climate change.
"Climate change is going to happen. There's very little the
city can do about it. It needs to roll with the punch, so to
speak.
"In order to do that, you are going to have to think about
where you are most vulnerable and what some of the options
might be."
The impact of climate change would be felt in different ways
across Otago, but the worst problems would be seen in Dunedin
through rising sea levels and rivers more prone to flooding.
The city needed to prepare for repeats of the 1929 flood,
which occurred after a severe downpour dumped 200mm of rain
on Dunedin in a single day, Prof Fitzharris said.
Sea-level rise was likely to be an "ongoing battle", with the
latest reports - following greater-than-expected melting of
ice in western parts of the Antarctic and Greenland -
suggesting sea levels could rise by up to 1.5m by 2100, he
said.
That would be worse than the 0.6m increase predicted in the
last IPCC report in 2007 and would pose the biggest problems
around parts of Otago Harbour, coastal areas such as St Kilda
and St Clair and possibly parts of South Dunedin, he said.
Prof Fitzharris' report outlining what to expect would be
presented to the council in March, enabling decisions to
protect infrastructure that could be vulnerable as soon as
2040, he said.
Council city environment general manager Tony Avery said work
to protect infrastructure had begun, including in the design
of the Tahuna wastewater project and the upgrading of
Portobello Rd.
The council had also adopted the IPCC's third and fourth
estimates on climate change, including sea-level rise, when
planning new infrastructure projects, among other
initiatives, he said.
Otago Regional Council chief executive Graeme Martin said
staff had, in recent years, also worked to identify the major
challenges arising from climate change across Otago.
A meeting of council staff from around Otago would be staged
in March next year to discuss the issues, followed by public
presentations around the middle of the year, he said.
"We have got years to adapt to it, but of course you don't
get adaptation if you don't plan for it," he said.
chris.morris@odt.co.nz
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