National is already admitting its majority in Saturday's Botany by-election isn't going to come close to Pansy Wong's 2008 victory.
But Prime Minister John Key says there are good reasons for that -- the usual poor voter turnout in by-elections could be even lower this time because of the intense focus on the Christchurch earthquake.
The party will be a lot more interested in the percentage of the vote its candidate Jamie-Lee Ross can capture over Labour and the other hopefuls in the contest for the safe National seat.
Pansy Wong's majority of 10,872 at the 2008 general election came on a turnout of 76 percent and Mr Key said today he did not think Mr Ross would match that.
Speaking after opening Ormiston Senior High School, just outside the Botany electorate boundary but reaching into its student base, Mr Key said by-elections typically had about 50 percent turnouts compared with general election turnouts of between 75 and 80 percent.
"That may even be more affected by the earthquake and the fact that people haven't been terribly focused on the by-election," he said.
"It'll reduce the majority, so we won't be overly focused on the majority. What we'll be focused on is the percentage of the vote, but obviously we're hopeful that our voters get out anyway."
In 2008 Mrs Wong won 56.22 percent of the candidate vote. Labour's then-candidate Koro Tawa earned 21.06 percent, while third-placed Kenneth Wang of ACT won 15.26 percent. No other candidate gained more than 4 percent.
But though Mrs Wong may well have had a high level of popularity, the party vote in 2008 for National - which is not being contested in the by-election - was even higher, at 61.25 percent.
Labour earned 25.18 percent of the party vote, ACT 4.84 percent, and the Green Party - which has no candidate for the by-election after their chosen candidate didn't register in time - was next on 2.39 percent.
Saturday's by-election was forced after Mrs Wong resigned in the wake of allegations her husband Sammy was involved in a business deal on a taxpayer-subsidised trip they made to China in 2008, which is against parliamentary rules.
Mr Key said he thought Mr Ross had done a very good job in a campaign, which hasn't gained much attention since the earthquake.
"We think he's put in a great effort and we think he'd make a tremendous difference in Parliament, but in the end, like every election, it's in the hands of the voters," he said.
"If the people of Botany want a National MP they need to get out and vote for that candidate on Saturday so we're certainly actively encouraging them to do that.
"We think we've got a fine candidate who's got a good future in front of him."
Mr Ross said he was not taking victory for granted and urged National supporters to make sure they vote on Saturday.
Labour's candidate is Michael Wood, while the candidate with the next-highest profile if billboard presence is any indicator is Paul Young of the fledgling New Citizen Party, a party whose primary backing is from the Asian community.
