Opinion: Budget dull and predictable

Bill English
Bill English
Quintessential Bill English: dry-ish, careful, a touch of tough-love, some low-risk investment, two political cover-offs, economically literate.

The main complaint at the media lockup - actually a compliment - was how dull and predictable the budget was.

Some number juggling keeps the fiscal track heading to surplus - just.

That track is over an optimistic economic landscape, in part due to Christchurch's rebuild. But that sucks in imports which helps push the balance of payments deficit back into danger territory.

The spending track across the dry English landscape heads well below 30% of GDP.

Government debt stays way below most other ''developed'' countries', so severe austerity is not needed, and English's budget lays better foundations for the 2020s than profligate Australia's did on
Tuesday.

But English still is not reassured, so the spending screws stay on and the ''fiscal impact'' on the economy is negative.

The political risks are mainly housing and poverty, on which the Labour-Greens lot has some traction.

So local councils will be headlocked into freeing up land, as Auckland has - National political need trumps local autonomy.

Assorted crumbs are tossed to the poor. Dry and careful is safe politics. English will likely get more ticks than crosses from voters, now a bit less nervous about household finances and so a bit less likely to reach for the Labour-Greens emergency cord.

- Colin James is a leading social and political commentator.

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