The organisation's chief executive, Kevin Bowler, made the prediction in his presentation on the first day of business of the travel trade show Trenz in Queenstown yesterday.
Mr Bowler said of New Zealand's 2.6 million international arrivals for the year ending in March, 160,000 were from China, a 23.7% year-on-year increase.
There were 38,000 visitors from Malaysia, up 72.9% year-on-year, and 39,000 visitors from Singapore, up 28.8% year-on-year.
The rising Asian market was in stark contrast to the 222,000 arrivals from the United Kingdom, up 1% year-on-year, and 184,000 from the United States, down 3.1% year-on-year.
However, Mr Bowler told Trenz reporters total stay days, linked to visitor spend, had been flat since 2008. The challenge was to encourage more "mono"(New Zealand destination only) tourists from new markets, as a preference to "dual" tourists, or those who tagged on a New Zealand visit after Australia.
"The last two years we've been very conversion-focused, but we want to build on preference and the 'wow' factor," he said.
The 2011 Rugby World Cup had not been a success for all operators, but it had been a win for the country, he said.
Future leverage on the international stage was hooked mainly on The Hobbit films, but New Zealand will be the "guest of honour" at the prestigious Frankfurt Book Fair in October and exposure will be capitalised on.
Opportunities were less for Dunedin in emerging markets compared with the Southern Lakes, Mr Bowler told the Otago Daily Times after his speech.
"What we're up against there is a reasonably short length of stay, so they have to be quite selective in what they can get to. The Western markets, and to some degree Australia, offer bigger opportunity in the medium term to areas like Dunedin.
"I wouldn't exclude [Dunedin] making an effort in that [Asian] market as there's a historical connection with China, but I would be realistic ... "
Tourism Industry Association interim chief executive Grant Lilly told reporters yesterday New Zealanders were the industry's "banker market" and should not be overlooked.
Spending $13.2 billion a year, domestic travellers accounted for 57% of New Zealand's total annual tourism spend of $23 billion.
The association encouraged the "Mondayising" of Waitangi and Anzac days, plus cycle trail development and a national events strategy to further stimulate domestic tourism.
Mr Lilly told reporters having Prime Minister John Key as Tourism Minister put the industry at the heart of the Government's growth agenda, but the association wanted improved infrastructure and he joined Mr Bowler in his support for a national convention centre in Auckland.
Mr Lilly said the voice of tourism needed to be strongly heard by Cera during the Christchurch rebuild. He commended the work of Christchurch Airport and Tourism Christchurch and Canterbury for its part in the process.
Association members wanted travel to be easier, with the roll-out of SmartGate to more cities. It was hoped the United States would introduce the technology to routes to New Zealand.
