Brexit 'an isolationist catastrophe'

An aeroplane flies past the Union Flag above the Houses of Parliament in Westminster, in central...
An aeroplane flies past the Union Flag above the Houses of Parliament in Westminster, in central London. Photo Reuters
Brexit is an "an isolationist catastrophe'' for Britain, which could prove heavily damaging economically, and lead to Britain's eventual break-up, but could be less harmful for New Zealand.

Prof Robert Patman, of the University of Otago, said he and several other university colleagues were in a state of stunned "disbelief'' over the outcome.

The earlier decision by British Prime Minister David Cameron to call a referendum over the European Union membership issue had been proved "irresponsible'' and the extent of the "self-inflicted wound'' caused by Britain's impending "exit'' from the EU was hard to grasp, he said.

Prof Patman, a specialist in international relations, said the Los Angeles Times had used the term "isolationist catastrophe'' in a headline, and he agreed with that description.

Fifty percent of Britain's exports went to the EU, and he could not think of another example in history in which a country had effectively voted to separate itself from half of its export markets.

"It's a terrible blow. It's just amazing. It's totally self-inflicted.''

Prof Patman, who was born in England, said Britain, termed "the sick man of Europe'' in the 1970s, had strongly benefited from EU membership, and was now the world's fifth-biggest economy.

And further strong economic performance had been predicted this year.

Britain's economy was "flying'', but voters had now decided to move away from a key source of its financial success.

The European and world economy was highly interconnected, and individual nations could not solve the big challenges that faced them alone.

The Brexit case was based on a set of "shaky assumptions'', and it was an "illusion'' that Britain was stronger by going it alone and simply trying to exercise more control over its borders.

He rejected suggestions by UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage that other Commonwealth countries would provide big new markets for Britain.

"It's a complete fantasy.''

New Zealand had had to diversify its export markets vigorously when it became apparent in the 1960s that Britain was aiming to join the Common Market, and Britain would itself now have to try to find other markets.

But Britain would effectively be going "cap in hand'' to find them, and EU authorities were unlikely to be "magnanimous'' towards Britain.

Although the 16% of New Zealand's exports that went to the EU was a figure "not to be sneezed at'', New Zealand's trade had diversified and our biggest trading partners were now China and Australia.

But he was concerned New Zealand could also be adversely affected both by "a long period of uncertainty'' for trading, generated by Brexit, and by any resulting instability in the international financial system.

The outcome was "terribly embarrassing'' for Mr Cameron.

Britain itself was unlikely to survive in its current form, given that there was already considerable sentiment in Scotland to separate from England, and Scottish people were determined to remain part of the EU.

Mr Farage and fellow Brexit proponent Boris Johnson would not be losing their jobs, but that was likely to be the fate of some workers who had voted for Brexit, he warned.

London's financial sector could be damaged in other ways, and some finance traders could decide to shift to Frankfurt, where they could access the EU's much bigger market, rather than about 64million people in Britain.

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