Defaults and demonstrations

While anti-capitalism protesters gather and demonstrate across the world - from the Octagon in Dunedin to Times Square in New York via London, Madrid, Rome and Tokyo - Europe lurches towards another ominous milestone in its debt crisis.

At the centre of it sits Greece, verging on a sovereign debt default and threatening to pull down with it the entire euro zone deck of cards. This would of course have an adverse, not to say debilitating, effect on the world economy - and leading countries have pressed Europe to act decisively within the next five days.

On October 23 there is to be a European Union summit at which it is to be hoped European leaders will find some way through the issue that has divided the euro zone and set nerves on edge in other parts of the world.

This is most likely to require a major debt write down for some European banks and their private creditors - going much further than July's agreed voluntary write-down of 21% on their Greek debt. Some commentators, including German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, are suggesting the required write-downs could rise as high as 50%-60%.

If this sounds painful, spare a thought for the average Greek citizen. This week the country's Parliament is due to sanction pay cuts, pension reductions and thousands of lay-offs from the public service.

In response, unions have called for a 48-hour general strike tomorrow, which is expected to shut down most of the country and exacerbate the effects of separate strikes by customs officials and municipal workers. And while the average Greek citizen has clearly been living well beyond the country's means in recent years, that does not make the personal hardship many will experience any more palatable.

Greece's debt burden is estimated at about 162% of gross domestic product, which will require stringent austerity for some years to come to bring under control. The alternative - a default on sovereign debt, the equivalent of declaring a country bankrupt - will, according to analysts, simply mean greater pain for many in Greece. It may also fan a contagion of defaults in the fragile euro zone economies of Ireland and Portugal and to a lesser but still threatening extent, of Spain and Italy.

That in turn could accelerate a global recession. Japanese, Canadian, British and US finance ministers have all warned that unless swift action is taken to put an end to the crisis in Europe, the economic ramifications for developed and developing countries across the world will be severe.

As an exporter, New Zealand Inc will suffer in a downwardly mobile world economy: while countries such as India and China continue to grow both through their own-export led performances and public sector investment in infrastructure, a slow-down in their Western markets will inevitably dampen demand for imports - including the primary produce that this country depends on for much of its wealth.

Inbound tourism will be set back and, as the Rugby World Cup recedes, a contraction of this sector may become evident as well. For all that the debt crisis is centred on the other side of the world, if the worst happens, it will be a rupture from which no country will escape unscathed, notwithstanding the almost cheery optimism of Prime Minister John Key in his pronouncements about the comparative strength of the New Zealand economy.

All of this might be seen to add grist to the mill being ground out by the Occupy Dunedin protesters camping at present in the Octagon. But as is usually the case with the reductive logic of activism - which, typically, reduces a series of complex and interactive dynamics to mere slogans - the solutions are not as simple or accessible as they might wish.

It is important, in the name of democracy, however, that they are voiced. But this need not mean an indefinite "occupation" of the so-called moral high ground, nor of Dunedin's central plaza. This group of people has made its point: now it is time for its members to move on and return the streets to all of the city's people.

 

Add a Comment