How will China react?

China is facing a major show of public disobedience in Hong Kong, something the country's elite powermakers would not usually tolerate.

But this unrest is different because the world is watching and waiting to see how the Chinese rulers react to the pro-democracy protests, which appear to be growing in strength.

There is little sign of momentum flagging in the student-led protest, the aim of which has been to occupy sections of the city, including around the central financial district, in anger at a Chinese decision to limit voters' choices in a 2017 leadership election.

China rules Hong Kong under a one country, two systems formula that accords the former colony a degree of autonomy and freedoms not enjoyed in mainland China, with universal suffrage set as the eventual goal.

Polarising positions are emerging, and there is genuine disquiet about how China will react if the protests do not quieten quickly.

When Hong Kong was handed back to China in 1997 after 155 years of British rule, China made a show of force by marching thousands of troops into the former territory.

But tourists are hard-pressed these days to find many signs of Chinese rule.

Hong Kong is a commercial centre, just like Shanghai, and Hong Kong needs China for much of its wealth.

One of the mooted solutions which can be discounted is China being accepting of any chief executive of Hong Kong hostile to Chinese rule.

A more conceivable scenario would be for China to continue indefinitely with the status quo - a retrograde step when viewed in relation to a promise of democratic change.

Anson Chan, a chief secretary of the former Hong Kong government and also the founder of the Hong Kong 2020 democracy advocacy group, says China is not ready for a democratically governed Hong Kong and fears it cannot be controlled.

She describes as heartbreaking seeing police wearing gas masks, firing pepper spray and tear gas indiscriminately into crowds of young unarmed student protesters with their hands in the air.

Hong Kong has a long tradition of peaceful protest, dating back to the outpouring of grief following the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.

Pro-democracy marches take place each year on the July 1 anniversary of the return of sovereignty to China.

One of the more difficult tasks will be getting governments in Hong Kong and Beijing to acknowledge Hong Kong's people have a right to be angry.

According to pro-democracy protesters, the Basic Law promises people will have the right to elect their head of government and all members of the legislature by universal suffrage.

Strange as it may seem, the Chinese are not involved in the cut and thrust of political argument.

They will need to find more effective ways of making their views clear and arguing their case - not in Beijing but in Hong Kong.

Protesters are angry they are being told they are not ready for full democracy.

One person, one vote is in place, but the candidates will be screened by a Beijing-dominated selection panel.

The world has already seen the move by China to flood its east with Han Chinese to try to quell rebellion by the Uyghur people, a Turkish ethic group.

Han Chinese have also rushed into Tibet and the wealthiest of mainland Chinese are buying the most expensive real estate in Hong Kong.

China usually wins its arguments by colonisation, but in the case of Hong Kong - which enjoyed a certain amount of freedom under English rule - the situation is decidedly more complicated.

Cracking down too hard could shake confidence in market-driven Hong Kong. Not reacting firmly enough could embolden dissidents on the mainland.

The use of military force in Hong Kong is an unpalatable thought.

Although the eyes of the West are firmly on the Middle East, China will be unwise to use that as an excuse to roll troops and tanks across into Hong Kong.

Most likely, China will persist with its proposals, perhaps with some minor concessions in the expectation the opposition will slowly ease.

But before that happens, more protests with escalating arrests are likely.

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