If it is a truism that political leaders are never more
popular than in their first few weeks, it has to be said that
Prime Minister-elect John Key extended the electorate's
largesse towards himself and his party by the manner in which
he set about forming a new government.
He was affable, inclusive and decisive, putting together
confidence and supply agreements with United Future's Peter
Dunne, Act New Zealand's Rodney Hide and the Maori Party's
Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples with remarkable speed - even
with two of these containing potentially fractious
"fish-hooks".
A review of the Emissions Trading Scheme and ministerial
positions including Local Government and Regulatory Reform
for Mr Hide, and Consumer Affairs and associate roles in
Education and Defence for his deputy, Heather Roy, all
outside Cabinet, form the basis of the National-Act
agreement.
Agreement with the Maori Party came through a combination of
policy and portfolios: Dr Sharples takes Maori Affairs, Mrs
Turia the Community and Voluntary sector, with additional
associate portfolios for them both, and a commitment not to
scrap the Maori seats.
Critically, a review of the Foreshore and Seabed Act is
promised.
This is astute politics.
Within nine days, Mr Key and his advisers assembled
arrangements that offer the National-led minority government
70 votes on confidence and supply.
More importantly, and with an eye to the longer term, it
occupies the wide centre ground of New Zealand politics
previously colonised by Labour, with Act to the Right, the
Maori Party counterbalancing on the Left, and Peter Dunne in
the centre.
If Mr Key can make it work, it could be the beginning of a
longstanding occupation.
To this end, he was expected to introduce new faces to the
Cabinet yesterday.
With a total executive of 28 - the same as under the last
Labour-led administration - five portfolios from other
parties and three from National outside Cabinet, that left 20
in the National-only Cabinet.
Some came as no surprise: Bill English, the long-serving,
intellectual workhorse of the parliamentary National Party as
deputy prime minister with the Finance and Infrastructure
portfolios, Gerry Brownlee in Energy and as leader of the
House overseeing the impending legislative programme, Simon
Power in Justice and State-owned Enterprises, Tony Ryall in
Health and State Services, Nick Smith in Environment and
Climate Change, Judith Collins in Police and Corrections, and
Anne Tolley in Education.
Of the newer faces, lawyer Chris Finlayson, although not a
first-termer, is relatively unfamiliar.
He assumes the role of attorney-general and the portfolios of
Treaty Negotiations and Arts, Culture and Heritage.
Tim Groser gets Trade and Conservation, while complete
newcomer Steven Joyce is rewarded for his successful campaign
strategy with Transport and Communications.
Paula Bennett is catapulted from relative obscurity into
Social Development and Employment, Kate Wilkinson takes
Labour and Jonathan Coleman Immigration and Broadcasting.
The fresh faces are threaded among the remaining more
experienced ministers - David Carter (Agriculture); Murray
McCully (Foreign Affairs); Wayne Mapp (Defence); Georgina te
Heuheu (Courts); Phil Heatley (Fisheries); and Pansy Wong
(Ethnic Affairs).
Notably absent from the Cabinet of 20 is Maurice Williamson
(Building and Construction and Customs) outside the inner
team, presumably for showing a persistent inability to toe
the party line.
Joining him there are Richard Worth (Internal Affairs) and
John Carter (Civil Defence).
None of these three is young and can only regard such
positions as last-term consolation prizes.
Of the three, probably only a disenfranchised Mr Williamson
displays the temperament to cause problems.
The immediate response is that Mr Key has continued in his
briskly positive mode and got the balance about right.
Now comes the difficult part: moulding this executive into an
effective and harmonious team able to put longstanding
differences aside and address the many issues facing the
country - not least the recession and the international
financial crisis.
If anyone inspires confidence with his experience and
economic competence it is Mr English, on whom much of the
burden will fall.
While he has his head down on the nuts and bolts of this, Mr
Key would do well to keep a close eye on manoeuverings around
the Foreshore and Seabed Act and the Emissions Trading
Scheme.
These are the two most obvious faultlines along which the new
Prime Minister, who with his Cabinet will be sworn in
tomorrow, must tread with care.
Little detail on these critical policy areas has been spelled
out in the agreements with the respective parties, leaving
much scope for mischief and misunderstandings.
That said, Mr Key has exceeded expectations in his first 10
days as prime minister-elect, ensuring a more harmonious
honeymoon than many an incoming leader could dare to
entertain.
Whether the subsequent "marriage" proves enduring will
provide the real test of his mettle.
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