Rudd's climate call

New Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd resembled nothing so much as a white knight ranged on his charger against the dark forces of global climate change as he assumed office.

He had campaigned for a world-leading role in the battle to save the world and had appeared to have received a resounding mandate.

No sooner had the votes been counted than had he ratified the Kyoto Protocol and was off to play a starring role at a world climate conference in Bali.

Environmental activists had every right to feel encouraged, to see some light at the end of a long and forboding tunnel previously blacked out by the unresponsive John Howard.

And, more recently, they would have had the inauguration of the green-tinged President-elect Barack Obama of the United States to look forward to as well.

Now, many of those same, perhaps overly optimistic, environmentalists are feeling aggrieved.

What a difference a year - and the small matter of a global recession - makes.

Last Monday, Mr Rudd announced his country's carbon emission targets.

He ruled out deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions until at least 2020, instead promising a unilateral 5% cut on 2000 levels by 2020 if the world could not strike a collective deal.

If it could, he projected a possible 15% reduction in concert with other countries.

This is considerably below the targets recommended by climate scientists and global warming activists who say that emissions must be slashed by between 25% and 40% to avert catastrophic consequences.

The announcement was met with dismay by the Australian Green Party but was received more warmly by industry representatives, business interests and the Opposition.

Defending his Government's position, Mr Rudd said the 2020 target was realistic.

"We are not going to make promises that cannot be delivered," he said.

"Right now the prospects of realising [a strong international climate pact] are limited, that's just a call of political reality. These targets are appropriate and responsible."

Decoded, his actions and his pronouncements confirm that making significant progress on climate change was always going to be devilishly difficult, but that the present and predicted state of the world economy - and the fractures in its very ediface - have made it doubly so.

How does any politician who wants to give himself and his party some chance of re-election tell an electorate that he is sacrificing concrete entities - such as jobs, standards of living and competitive advantage in the international arena - in the service of an altruistic ideal the veracity and import of which is yet to be fully accepted by large segments of the voting population?

It is a question that will also have begun to weigh heavily on Mr Obama and his team of advisors.

The Australian economy, until recently one of the most robust in the OECD, has begun to contract.

Even the shine on the minerals and metals industry is beginning to tarnish as demand slows in China, India and throughout much of the West.

There are tough times ahead for the lucky country and, as Mr Rudd has indicated, there is a delicate balance to be struck between preserving its future through the downturn and taking a lead in mitigating anthropogenic climate change.

That balance has become increasingly elusive as a global consensus on necessary and adequate measures retreats - as confirmed by the inconclusive recent climate conference at Poznan in Poland.

Call it backsliding or just sensible engagement with the real world, while other countries, China and India among them, burn away to their hearts' content, New Zealand seems to be headed down a similar path to that of its larger neighbour.

Several policy announcements indicate the National-led Government will not readily sacrifice this country's future wellbeing at the altar of ill-defined environmental goals.

Mr Rudd has taken a firm and umambiguous line in setting a course for his country.

It can be ramped up to accompany concerted world action, but the unknowns in all this are just how long and how deep the recession will prove, and how forceful Mr Obama will be on one of the great issues of our times.

His recent appointments to top environmental posts speak volumes, but as Mr Rudd has discovered, matching intent with action is hard work.

 

 

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