New Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd resembled nothing so
much as a white knight ranged on his charger against the dark
forces of global climate change as he assumed office.
He had campaigned for a world-leading role in the battle to
save the world and had appeared to have received a resounding
mandate.
No sooner had the votes been counted than had he ratified the
Kyoto Protocol and was off to play a starring role at a world
climate conference in Bali.
Environmental activists had every right to feel encouraged,
to see some light at the end of a long and forboding tunnel
previously blacked out by the unresponsive John Howard.
And, more recently, they would have had the inauguration of
the green-tinged President-elect Barack Obama of the United
States to look forward to as well.
Now, many of those same, perhaps overly optimistic,
environmentalists are feeling aggrieved.
What a difference a year - and the small matter of a global
recession - makes.
Last Monday, Mr Rudd announced his country's carbon emission
targets.
He ruled out deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions until at
least 2020, instead promising a unilateral 5% cut on 2000
levels by 2020 if the world could not strike a collective
deal.
If it could, he projected a possible 15% reduction in concert
with other countries.
This is considerably below the targets recommended by climate
scientists and global warming activists who say that
emissions must be slashed by between 25% and 40% to avert
catastrophic consequences.
The announcement was met with dismay by the Australian Green
Party but was received more warmly by industry
representatives, business interests and the Opposition.
Defending his Government's position, Mr Rudd said the 2020
target was realistic.
"We are not going to make promises that cannot be delivered,"
he said.
"Right now the prospects of realising [a strong international
climate pact] are limited, that's just a call of political
reality. These targets are appropriate and responsible."
Decoded, his actions and his pronouncements confirm that
making significant progress on climate change was always
going to be devilishly difficult, but that the present and
predicted state of the world economy - and the fractures in
its very ediface - have made it doubly so.
How does any politician who wants to give himself and his
party some chance of re-election tell an electorate that he
is sacrificing concrete entities - such as jobs, standards of
living and competitive advantage in the international arena -
in the service of an altruistic ideal the veracity and import
of which is yet to be fully accepted by large segments of the
voting population?
It is a question that will also have begun to weigh heavily
on Mr Obama and his team of advisors.
The Australian economy, until recently one of the most robust
in the OECD, has begun to contract.
Even the shine on the minerals and metals industry is
beginning to tarnish as demand slows in China, India and
throughout much of the West.
There are tough times ahead for the lucky country and, as Mr
Rudd has indicated, there is a delicate balance to be struck
between preserving its future through the downturn and taking
a lead in mitigating anthropogenic climate change.
That balance has become increasingly elusive as a global
consensus on necessary and adequate measures retreats - as
confirmed by the inconclusive recent climate conference at
Poznan in Poland.
Call it backsliding or just sensible engagement with the real
world, while other countries, China and India among them,
burn away to their hearts' content, New Zealand seems to be
headed down a similar path to that of its larger neighbour.
Several policy announcements indicate the National-led
Government will not readily sacrifice this country's future
wellbeing at the altar of ill-defined environmental goals.
Mr Rudd has taken a firm and umambiguous line in setting a
course for his country.
It can be ramped up to accompany concerted world action, but
the unknowns in all this are just how long and how deep the
recession will prove, and how forceful Mr Obama will be on
one of the great issues of our times.
His recent appointments to top environmental posts speak
volumes, but as Mr Rudd has discovered, matching intent with
action is hard work.
