Consolidation of power

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems likely to dismiss warnings from world leaders to not use the attempted coup as a blank cheque to do whatever he wants in retaliation.

Turkey has been thrown into chaos after a coup against Mr Erdogan was ruthlessly put down at the weekend. Reports vary about how many people have been rounded up but at best guess, more than 8000 people - ranging from judges to generals, lawyers to soldiers - have been taken into custody, stripped to underwear and forced to kneel with their hands bound behind their back.

World leaders are right to remain concerned as Turkey has provided a valuable staging post for attacks against Islamic State fighters in Syria. Although Mr Erdogan gave his permission for Nato to restart flights over his country, the leading Turkish general in charge of the base used by the United States to launch the attacks has been accused of being a plotter.

The hastily-implemented coup seemed to have been a long time in the planning but was brought forward when plans were revealed to arrest upwards of 3000 soldiers accused of plotting to overthrow the president.

Mr Erdogan was out of the country and his absence was seen as an ideal time to strike. The places where he had just visited were bombed, and reports of him escaping death by minutes added to the intrigue of the situation. Two jet fighters had Mr Erdogan's plane in their sights but did not fire, another mystery which will likely go unsolved.

Turkey is a nation of Islam but the military has been the guardian of the country's secular traditions. Now, the country is left to consider what will be the lasting consequences of the coup. Has Mr Erdogan emerged even more powerful or has he been weakened as a leader who must accommodate his opponents.

From an outside perspective, it is becoming clear that for Mr Erdogan, and his religiously conservative followers, the moment was a triumph of political Islam more than anything else.

Secular and liberal Turks generally opposed the coup, but it was his supporters who flooded the streets and gathered at Istanbul's airport to push out the occupying army. They mostly yelled religious slogans and chants in support of Mr Erdogan, rather than democracy itself.

The president has issued some conciliatory statements since the brutal crushing of the coup. However, he has also raised the possibility of reintroducing the death penalty, something which was abolished as part of Turkey's campaign to join the European Union. Commenting on the calls for the death penalty coming from his people, Mr Erdogan asked why he should keep the plotters in prison for years to come. The people want a swift end because they have lost relatives, neighbours and children. They are suffering.

If Turkey does reintroduce the death penalty, it will not be joining the EU, a top official says. But will Turkey care? The signs are Mr Erdogan is prepared to go his own way now. He has earlier said he will not be dictated to by bureaucrats in Brussels.

Mr Erdogan's history suggests he will use the incident to redesign institutions in Ankara to his own benefit. Each time he has faced a challenge to power, from street protests three years ago to a corruption investigation within his inner circle, he has sidelined his enemies and become more autocratic. This time, it seems no different.

The West needs Turkey on its side because of its strategic location. The country has provided much-needed help in the fight against IS in Syria, but it has taken terrible retribution against Kurdish rebels.

A deepening tie to Islam will concern the US, and Europe, in particular. The dismissal of thousands of judges, who seemingly had no role to play in the military revolt, leaves Mr Erdogan with a free hand to design the bureaucracy as he likes, and indications are it will happen soon.

Turkey seems likely to become a country which is more consolidated, and dissent will be more difficult.

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