Super worries

For the past 35 years, political parties have wrestled with the looming problem of paying national superannuation to future generations, especially given the particular problem of the "bulge" in numbers due to the post-war "baby boomers" reaching retirement age.

New Zealand has carried the expectations derived from the welfare state for so long now that it has become inbuilt, and saving for retirement a phenomenon of only very recent times, so reliant have the bulk of the population become on a state-funded pension.

Those expectations were given a quite unjustified, cynical twist in 1975, when Robert Muldoon helped buy the National Party back into power by his scheme of retirement at 60 with a non-means tested pension pegged at a generous 80% of the average ordinary-time weekly wage, less tax, which was in itself a response to Labour's limited compulsory contributory scheme.

In the years of the Clark government, various attempts were made to achieve a universal policy acceptable to all the major parties, but these ultimately failed.

Eventually, what became known as the Cullen pre-funded scheme appeared - no other politician or party had come up with a credible alternative - which established the mechanism to help fund future payments by setting aside a part of Budget surpluses.

Its principal weakness was its potential impact on future Budgets and future superannuation payments in times of economic gloom, for the first decision in any future Budget for the next 25 years will be the call on superannuation funds, not less than $2 billion every time, and such a burden will inevitably have an impact on other spending plans.

It has not taken long for negative circumstances to arise or for a government to have to face the unpalatable.

National's expectation that the Crown faces deficits of up to $10 billion, and for the next decade, is the chief reason why contributions to the Cullen fund have been suspended, but as Mr English has said, they will resume when the economy returns to surpluses; that was why the suspension of contributions was envisaged in the empowering Act.

The Treasurer's decision to suspend contributions is correct because it makes no sense to continue with borrowed money. The Cullen scheme was designed only to soak up surpluses - to keep the "savings" in the bank, so to speak.

For the Government to now decide, when times are tough, to borrow the funds to keep the scheme propped up would be to concede that providing certainty in state superannuation was guaranteed, no matter what, and never mind the true cost to future generations.

The first casualty were this to happen would be private savings. Government superannuation will never be more than modest and there needs to be renewed vigor to promote private savings to supplement it.

The task force on superannuation, which was the last pre-Cullen proposal, attempted to take it out of the political arena by encouraging private savings. The response from younger people with good incomes has since been encouraging, for many are now investing in retirement.

But older people with few income-earning years left before retirement, and those without much disposable income to save, especially women, are faced with a frustrating quandary: they are being urged to save from small or non-existent resources and warned they will otherwise face a retirement in poverty.

It is a prospect for this particular group deserving of Parliament's further attention, particularly in a search for ways where the costs of living for pensioners can been reduced in key areas such as electricity and heating.

There's only 4 options:

There's only 4 options:

*Borrow now to make savings with.
*Increase tax on income earned over $100,000pa to make savings with.
*Borrow later to make up for not having saved.
*Keep increasing the age of eligibility.

Obviously the option that affects the least number of people is to increase tax on high income. However, I can't see National backing down on tax-cuts promises again; even if it's the most sensible thing to do.

Increasing the age of eligibility for a pension so that tax rates are kept 'affordable' for high income earners seems, well, immoral. And while I'm sure some in National don't share such morals and might seriously consider such, as the country understands the impacts of failing to save for the future - the polls will steer them away from such immoral actions of increasing the age of eligibility.

And even if they do choose increasing the age of eligibility in future, it can only ever be a short term solution; ie we can't keep upping the age of eligibility every time the country's a bit short of funds - age of eligibility would eventually increase over the average age of death.

So we're left with borrow now or later.

While borrowing money to save money sounds stupid it's not as stupid as doing nothing. If we borrow now at less interest than we invest at, we're still up - and more importantly we have savings in the bank. We also know the level of interest, which currently isn't too bad.

If we don't borrow now to save, we'll have to borrow later (unless New Zealand wins some kind of international Lotto) - and who knows what interest will be like in the future? It doesn't take a financial genius to guess that it's very unlikely to be less than currently. And more importantly, we'll have no savings in the bank - so not only will interest be higher, but we'll have to borrow a lot more to boot.

Hence while the 'Cullen fund' isn't perfect, borrowing now so we have some savings still makes a lot more sense that effectively doing nothing.