Rates levels alright here, says councillor

Work is carried out on the Forsyth Barr Stadium roof truss,. Photo by Stephen Jaquiery.
Work is carried out on the Forsyth Barr Stadium roof truss,. Photo by Stephen Jaquiery.
Does the Dunedin City Council have a recipe for increasing rates and debt, and are its elected officials either devious or incompetent - as some of the council's critics suggest? Richard Walls answers some specific criticisms.

Calvin Oaten avers (ODT 19.7.10) that after sifting through the DCC accounts, the city has a recipe for both increasing rates and increasing debt.

Unfortunately, his recipe, not for the first time, omits some key ingredients.

"No wonder Dunedin's rates are so high."

Simply an opinion. And an unsupported opinion at that.

No facts, no comparisons.

The facts would, of course, get in the way of the case Mr Oaten attempts to build.

Dunedin has one of the lowest average residential rates in the country and mixes it competitively with its peers even when the dividend income from council investments is excluded - a dividend that, this financial year, will reduce the average residential rate in Dunedin from around $2095 to $1641 on a property valued at $291,000. (Note: the figure given is approximate because of the varying impact of GST in the period.)

Surely the question that Mr Oaten and others should be asking is: do we get value for our rates dollar? That is certainly a legitimate question and one for objective debate at any time, especially when we consider our annual budgets (the draft annual plan) and, of course, right now with council elections imminent.

So while expenditure and the activities that council undertakes should be (and is) constantly under scrutiny, and bearing in mind that just maintaining services at current levels accounts for something between 90% and 95% of rating income, just what services would Mr Oaten cut?

What lesser standards would he accept?

What the council spends is set out in each draft annual plan. An insert in the relevant City Talk carries a summary of spending by activity in simplified diagrammatical form.

Last year, a rates funding working party recommendation that a breakdown of the spending should show on each rates assessment notice sent to ratepayers was adopted by the council and appeared on the reverse of the notice.

This year, the detail in the breakdown has been taken further.

It now shows both a gross and net breakdown for the general rate, which covers all activities generally referred to as discretionary: i.e. those we contribute to for community purposes as distinct from targeted rates such as water, which are for services directly delivered to individual properties.

It also shows the beneficial contribution of investment income.

Unfortunately, the detailed legal requirement relating to rating information that the assessment notice must carry does not leave sufficient space for the new breakdown and the changes in GST.

In its place, the notice for this financial year, currently being sent out, therefore explains how ratepayers may obtain rating information relating to a property: the first is by going to the DCC website at http://www.dunedin.govt.nz/services/rates-information/rates, entering your property address from the drop-down window and clicking through from there; the second is by telephoning the DCC customer service centre on 477-4000 and requesting that it be posted to you.

Now, let's turn to council debt and the "deceptions" alleged by Mr Oaten.

In a recent letter to the editor, he wrote: "This year [debt] is to peak at $337.151 million.

In 2011-12 it is to reduce to $233.061 million."

No problem there.

Straight from the "recipe book" - the now confirmed Annual Plan.

Then, says Mr Oaten: "This is achieved by transferring the DCC's costs of the stadium to Dunedin Venues Ltd, which is to be part of the DCHL group. In doing so, DVL will raise some $104 million and pay the DCC, thus removing that debt from its books. Of course it does not go away, it simply becomes DCHL's burden."

Yes, the recipe does say that Dunedin Venues Ltd will take over the debt that the DCC has incurred in building the stadium.

As it should.

Nor is there anything new in that.

It is well documented.

Mr Oaten departs from the script, however, when he says Dunedin Venues Ltd "is to be part of the DCHL (Dunedin City Holdings Ltd) group".

Indeed, he does so deliberately knowing full well from a direct discussion with Mr Athol Stephens, general manager, finance and corporate, as well as exchanges with me on the What If Stadium website, that DVL, like its sister company DVML (Dunedin Venues Management Ltd), is not part of the DCHL Group.

That is because the two companies are CCOs (council-controlled organisations), quite different entities to CCTOs (council-controlled trading organisations), the companies that comprise the DCHL Group.

The essential difference between the two is that CCOs remain the direct responsibility of the council and the council ultimately stands behind them.

I won't repeat the raft of reasons why the ownership and operational costs of the stadium and other similar bricks and mortar properties proposed to be included have been structured within DVL as a CCO. They have been well canvassed and result in considerable benefit to the ratepayer, directly and indirectly.

Mr Oaten writes of "an additional amount of interest amounting to $44.35 million", describing it as a "deception".

And that if it was to fall where it belongs, would "result in a rate increase this year of some 18%".

He is referring to interest that has been or will be capitalised into the final cost of assets under construction, or to be constructed.

When borrowings are needed to fund construction of an asset, accounting standards require that, like any other cost of construction, interest on the borrowings is capitalised into its cost.

Page 96 of the DCC's 2010-11 annual plan gives the total capitalised, and estimated to be capitalised, over the 11 years from 2009-10 to 2019-20 and pages 110-122 give the detail.

Of the $44.35 million, payment of $6.7 million (15%) will be deferred by adding it into the associated debt during construction.

Once construction has been completed, repayment of the debt will start.

The remaining $37.65 million of interest is paid as it is incurred out of a mixture of rates and non-rates income.

There is not a "debt bomb of maybe $60 to $80 million".

These interest payments are already reflected in the three prudential ratios the council uses.

The interest payments have not been deferred for the purpose Mr Oaten claims.

There is no deception.

When false assertions are published, the council has no option but to publish the truth.

Mr Oaten then omits to say that at the time ownership of the stadium passes to DVL, the commitment to the repayment of the loan, the ratepayer share, remains unchanged - although the way of doing so does change.

The current levy of $66 on the average residential property with a rating valuation of $291,000 will cease in the 2011-12 year when it will instead be deducted from the investment dividend received by each ratepayer.

Such investment dividend is distributed on the same pro-rata basis as the general rate is calculated, i.e. if the value of a property is more, you receive more and vice-versa. Mr Oaten's position goes completely awry when he mischievously stirs in "intergenerational equity", suggesting it is a euphemism related to the deferment of interest.

I say mischievously because he well knows that intergenerational equity is a term (not a euphemism) applied to the funding of long-term assets that will serve successive generations of users: that is, spreading the costs over long-life assets such as a sewer or water reservoir at Mt Grand that may last for, say, 80-100 years.

Is it being suggested that the current generation should pay the lot upfront and bear the full cost of depreciation as well? That, along with the annual (and seemingly always increased) asset revaluations, would be nasty medicine for current ratepayers indeed.

Mr Oaten has been a vociferous critic of the Town Hall/Dunedin Centre redevelopment and the stadium.

The continued hit-and-run campaign he and others are running on council debt is simply rooted in that.

Dunedin is carrying a level of debt that is historically high.

Whether one agrees with that or not, it is tied to the major capital projects the council has committed to in its community plan (the LTCCP).

While the stadium is part, the major drivers of council borrowing remain core infrastructure, in particular water and wastewater.

And our borrowing pales in comparison with that of our peers to the north - Auckland recently seeking to raise a mere $350 million to fund part of their requirements in one hit.

As with the spending of rates, it is entirely legitimate for proposed capital projects - which are the only items of expenditure that can be funded by loan - and their priority to be fully debated.

But Mr Oaten consistently ignores that loans must be repaid and that the DCC plans this precisely before committing itself to taking them out.

Indeed, it has a respected record of doing so which perhaps explains why it has been able to secure funding through the turbulent period of world recession and at very competitive rates.

The debate on council spending, on its projects - on anything - does, I suggest need more rigour, objectivity and, dare I say it, more respect for the opinion of others than Mr Oaten brings to it.

Richard Walls is chairman of the DCC's finance and strategy committee.

He has yet to confirm whether he will stand for re-election this year.

 

We all get to chose what we value

Fair enough, Mr Trippy. If you think a $300 million debt (or whatever, the cost is still unknown) brought upon the city by current councillors and mayor is 'not relevant' to the coming election, that is obviously your choice. And we all get to chose what we value.

Myself? I think the massive rate-funded stadium debt is the very heart of the election. Are people OK with the consequences of it or not? We will find out in October.

Assumptions?

You seem to be assuming that because I support the DCC in somethings that I must support them in all things.
This assumption is wrong, andb is generally (in my experience) made by people who themselves hold extreme views.

This is a kind of logical fallacy known as a "false dichotomy" or "false dilemna". Things aren't always one thing or the other.
In this case, I did not vote for Mr Chin at the last round of elections, nor had I particularly planned on voting for him in the next round of elections.

The stadium, as it happens, is not an issue that I hold in enough priority to allow it to swing my vote, one way or the other.
On those issues, at this time, I choose to keep my own quiet counsel.

Do you walk the walk or just talk the talk, trippy?

Good to hear someone who speaks their mind. But talk is cheap. Trippy will, no doubt, be at Mayor Chin's first public meeting in the approach to the election.
There he can request that Chin pay Mr Harland more than the pitiful $17,000 dollars he received for his work on the stadium. Trippy's views will be well supported by all there, I am sure.
See you there, Mr Trippy.

My opinion.

If you genuinely want my opinion Mr Belcher:

As a (mostly) European male, with two children under 3, and a single income household in the $48,001 - $70,000 IRD bracket, when I look at my rates bill of around $1500 I am generally content that it is so (comparitviely) low.

When I look at property values in (for example) Auckland, and look at the values of property in comparable locations, I find that the equivalent house in Auckland would atttract a rates bill of nearly $2500.

I look at the property value multiplier of 0.001963 used by the DCC, and the effective property value multiplier used in Auckland of 0.001711, and when considered in combination with any number of factors I find it acceptable.

I look at the Forsyth Barr stadium, and the charge that it attracts, and find that, although I'm largely undecided, I come out slightly in favour of it, and there is one or two factors that mostly cause me to lean in that general direction parking and rugby-heads.

Tell me Mr Belcher, have you ever had the 'pleasure' of trying to find parking within about 2km of Carisbrook when the All Blacks (or even the Highlanders) are playing? Have you ever had the 'luck' to try and drive along South Road or Hillside Road on the evening of a game after fulltime?
I have.

And frankly, I'm a little bit glad to see that chaos moved to a part of Dunedin that has, or will have, the infrastructure in place to be able to handle it.
Is this a small-minded, self-centered approach for me to take? Probably, but I don't see it as being any more small-minded or egocentric than arguments like "Why should I pay for a stadium I'll never use", and frankly it's an asepct of the debate that I do not think I have ever seen discussed.

Red herring?

Mr Belcher: Because, apparently, unlike some of my alleged peers, I know where my limits are, and even though I can quite happily peform a risk-cost annlysis, or a Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, I generally refrain from delving too deeply into finance and accounting (for the most part because I find it dull an unappealing).

My point, which has either been misunderstood, or ignored, is that any competant analyst would ordinarily refrain from commenting on causal mechanisms in a dataset without first looking at all of the features of the dataset, and you, Mr Belcher, have been insisting that we 'Ignore the man behind the curtain' so to speak, and disregard a feature unique to Dunedin that may be artificially skewing the data.

Although there have been a few notable failures, generally because otherwise competant analysts have failed to account for some factor or other, it is not generally the analysts who have called statistics into disrepute, but politicians and lawyers using them inappropriately.

Someone once said that Statistics is like a bikini; what it hides is just as important as what it reveals.

When you're ready for a rational, facts based discussion instead of emotional arm waving, come find me, I'll be around.

No, "the facts" are right

It's just that your conclusions are wrong because you are 'missing' some of the mix.

You asked if "councillors would be informed at last Monday's meeting of Finance and Strategy. They were, and Athol Stephens gave a very clear explanation referencing the information in the Annual Plan.

As you were not present, he has offered to take you through them.

Of one thing you - and readers - can be certain: when accounting matters such as this come up, I have my comment and/or references checked or seek an explanation by a professional person qualified to do so.

I urge you to accept Mr Stephens' gracious invitation, otherwise this discussion will keep going around 'in the proverbial' circle.

Statistics

Dear "Trippy",
The red herring of the statistics thing is old; I started off saying how I wasn't keen to concentrate on them, and yet again the point of the irrelevance of students has been missed... it's the affordability of the debt.

Try using your formidable trivia skills on the numbers and let me know if you think that Cr Walls and the DCC have it 100% correct - I would genuinely like to know if you support their figures.
Cheers,
Jeremy Belcher

Critic omits what?

Cr Richard Walls went on the offensive (ODT 29/7/10) at my article in which I suggested that the DCC's Annual Plan process was deceptive.

He said: "Calvin Oaten avers (ODT 19/7/10) that after sifting through the DCC's accounts, the city has a recipe for both increasing rates and increasing debt. No wonder Dunedin's rates are so high."

Simply an opinion, he says, and unsupported opinion at that. No facts, no comparisons. The facts would, he says, get in the way of the case I attempt to build. He says Dunedin has one of the lowest average residential rates in the country.

Who cares? I am only concerned with here in Dunedin. Right. Facts.
Rates revenue, 2002/03 $64.517m. 2010/11 $103.182m. 2019/20 $158.733m.
Net debt, " " $52.465m. " " $ 337.151m. " " $199.916m.
Interest paid, " " $ 3.844m. " " $10.956m. " " $18.411m.
Interest not paid, " " Nil " " $12.262m. " " $ 366,000
(capitalised)

When I stated that upon completion of the stadium, Dunedin Venues Ltd. (DVL) would take ownership and pay back to the DCC its share of the construction cost, some $104m- plus, Cr Walls took umbrage at my saying that DVL would be part of the DCHL group.

Whether it is or not, the fact is that it will arrange for Dunedin City Treasury Ltd (DCTL) to raise the money to be paid to DCC to reduce its debt. The fact that DCHL is to pay back the capital of that loan at $5m per year confirms that. The down side of this is that we, the citizens will receive $5m less per year in dividend until that debt is paid.

We are initially to make this up by way of the "average $66" per year until 2012. Thereafter, it will be accommodated out of the rate revenue, hence the increases.

Cr Walls challenges my assertion that the capitalising of some $44.35m of interest is carrying forward interest as debt incurring interest into the future.

Well, if it is not paid on due date where else can it go? He claims the capitalising of interest is normal procedure on big projects. So, it is still there, isn't it?

Cr Walls claims the major drivers of council borrowing remains core infrastructure, in particular water and wastewater. Not true. The Mt Grand and Southern water upgrades are done and dusted. If we look at the 2006/07 Plan we see that provision is there for some $100m for the Tahuna upgrade plus the pipeline extension. That plan shows a peak net debt in 2010/11 of $214.391m a difference of $122.76m from the $337.151m in this year's plan.

Let's look at the non-core projects as provided in the Plan, all debt funded, and see what they add up to. Stadium $165.526m (including covering the private funding until it is received. If it is.), Town Hall/ Conference Centre (inc. borrowing costs) $51.5m.,Otago Settlers Museum $30m., Regent Theatre $6.4m., Carisbrook purchase $7m. and SH88 realignment (subsidised by Land Transport) $11.145m. This all adds up to $271.611m.

In doubt, some $30m. for stadium land purchase, possibly additional.

Cr Walls says I have been a vociferous critic of the Town Hall development. True. My criticism all along has been the flawed arguments underlining the concept. The latest feasibility study conducted by Horwarth HTL consultants, commissioned by Kate Styles in September 2008, upon which the decision to proceed was made, shows that if it meets their projections it will in 2016 show revenue of $1.567m.

Deducting operating costs, depreciation, rates, interest etc. results in a deficit of ($593,430). Add the loan repayment provisions and the total cost per year to the rate payers is a loss of ($4.264m) And that is based on 36 conferences per year from 2016 on, compared with 16 held in 2008. All their figures, not mine. That is why I am opposed.

Cr Walls maintains that the DCC manages its debt very, very competently. It's not the management I query, but rather the creation of the debt. He says our credit rating is good with no trouble in raising money. True. The reason why that is so is because of the DCC's statutory right to strike rates. In effect the lenders' risk is underwritten by the ratepayers.
There is much more, but on balance I do not resile from any of my assertions.

Correction.

In the example in my last post I said that the median value of the content of their wallets was $4600, the correct value is $4000.6 - I'm not quite sure what happened there.

There are two kinds of statistics...

Given that I started from the basic assumption that all towns have students, I dare say it's not me who has missed the point.
As Mr Walls rightly points out, the point was not to blame students, but to simply illustrate that they have a disporportinate effect here in Dunedin compared with most other cities, something that must e taken into consideration when discussing any statistic, whether it be the arithmetic mean, geometric mean, median, mode, Nth percentile, or whatever other marker you choose to hang your hat on.

10 people in a room, 6 of them have $1 in their pocket, 4 of them have $10,000 in their pocket. The mean contents of their wallet is $4,600, and the median contents of their wallets is $1 - and you're seriously trying to convince people that the shape of the dataset is unimportant to consider?

But surely household income...

But surely household income has nothing directly to do with rating. What happens is that it is the council that decides what the rates take will be each year, not people's incomes (it's not an income tax), and the rates are divvied up among the ratepayers (at a first approximation) according to the valuations of their properties. It doesn't matter how much they earn, only the relative valuations of their properties.

However, where it is important is in their ability to pay. In a city like Auckland, where people generally earn higher wages, they will generally be able to afford higher rates than in Dunedin.

A caring socially responsible council will take this into account by making sensible decisions when setting rates or building up debt that will result in long term higher rates.

No blame here

Hi Jeremy,

I am not 'blaming' the presence of students for anything. My point is that rates are related to the rating value of a property, not personal income.

And the rating system is, as you know, a very 'blunt' instrument.

What can be assumed from the figures I quoted (ex Statistics NZ), is that household income reflects differing factors, e.g. there may be more than one earner in each household.

Must say this has been a useful exchange, including the interesting posts by 'Trippy'. I have not seen that sort of table comparison before.

Quite a change from those who mire themselves in 'the culture of continual complaint

Cheers!

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

Hi Trippy,
You're missing the point - which was to illustrate that all our main centres have students, and I dare say they all have overpaid bureaucrats at the top as well.

Hanging your hat on Dunedin's student population and crying foul at the implied decrease in median income because of the presence of students - when every time we hear about how the economy benefits from their spending - seems a bit churlish.

The students of today aren't like the ones I went to Otago with. Today's students have large loans to spend; whereas we had either a bursary of $90 per week or at least one job (or rich parents).

Loaned money or earned - it's a useful financial input for the city.
All I'm saying to Richard is don't blame the presence of students for an unpalatable income statistic; when in the next breath the DCC would, if it suits their "Spin du Jour", go to great lengths to brag about what an economic boon the student population is to the ragged remnant of Dunedin's vestigial economy.

Cheers,

Jeremy Belcher

Addendum.

Consider this for what it's worth.
I estimate, using the same assumptions as my previous post (all students earn $20k/A) ([{Total Population*Average Income}-{Total Students*$20,000}]/{Total Population-Total Students}) that excluding JUST the Students of Otago University would raise the average income of Otago from $626/week to $721/week.

Bear in mind that this isn't intended to be a definitve statement, merely an indication of the degree of influence students have on Dunedin (and Otago) statistics, as opposed to elsewhere in the country.

Finance & Strategy committee is informed?

Richard, if you look again at the graph in question you will see for year 2010 that the interest acknowledged (red bar) is the $10.956m. as shown in the plan.

It does not show the $12.262m interest capitalised as shown in the plan. The capitalised amount is not stadium specific, so the $6.7m you mention is not relevant to the discussion.

It seems your "wee essay" might have its facts wrong.

Facts?

Facts, Mr Belcher? Assuming that students earn $20,000 a year:

Auckland University: 38,502 Students (2007, the most recent info I was able to find).
Auckland Urban Population (2007) 1,303,000.
Percentage of Population attending Auckland University: 2.9%, contributes to the average income of Aucklanders by $11.36c per week ($591 PA).

Victoria University: 22,270 Students (2009)
Wellington Urban Population: 386,000
Percenntage of Population attending Victoria University: 5.8%, contributes to the average income of Wellingtonians by $22.19c per week ($1,153 PA)

Canterbury University: 22,403 Students (2009)
Christchurch Urban Population: 372,600 (2009)
Percentage of population attending Canterbury University: 6%, contributes to the average income of residents by $23.13 ($1202 PA)

Otago University: 21,507 Students (2009)
Dunedin Urban Population: 115,700 (2009)
Percentage of Population attending Otago University: 18.6% contributes to the average income of Dunedinites by $71.49c per week 3,717 PA).

In short, Mr Belcher, Otago University students have three times greater influence on the average income of Dunedinites than their counterparts in nearly any other city in New Zealand.

So the statement "Secondly, all NZ cities are assessed with their student populations duly included - so it is a level playing field; thus no skewing between cities" would seem to be (to me at least) misleading.

Finance and Strategy Committee is informed

I could have responded earlier but you asked if "the F & S committee (will) be informed of this?"
I can now confirm that the matter was discussed at today's meeting of Finance and Strategy and advise that the graph referred to by you and 'MikeStk' in the agenda papers includes both the capitalised and expensed interest as shown in the Annual Plan 2010-11.

The amount to be captalised into the stadium budget (but not the stadium debt) is $6.7m.
As explained in my wee 'essay' this conforms with required accounting standards for major projects.
Once a project is 'up and running', interest is then expensed.

Council comments

It is time to disregard all the hype and spin around what our rates might or might not be in the future.

It is time to consider the bigger picture of what we want for the future of Dunedin. It is time to consider who will we entrust to manage that future on our behalf. It is time to consider whether we want more of the same treatment from the same Mayor and councillors for the next three years, as we have had for the past three years. It is time to consider whether we want a council apparently directed by people outside our elected council for their own purposes. It is time to consider why we have had so much insinuation of underhand dealings in relation to land purchase for DCC projects in the past three years. It is time to consider whether we want to continue with a mayor who refuses to speak on behalf of Dunedin ratepayers, but speaks freely in defence of city council emmployees, i.e. the chief executive. It is time to have councillors who listen to and acknowedge ratepayers. It is time to have a council and Mayor who do not hide deliberations behind the cloak of "commercial sensitivity". It is time to have a Council and Mayor who can gain our respect.

Facts, not statistics

Hi Richard,
Great to hear back from you - I do enjoy having a chuckle from afar at the goings on over there in Dunedin and it's encouraging to see there are still people motivated enough to debate the current sorry state of the City.

OK, well for a start we'll keep the statistics to a minimum other than to point out that, no matter what yardstick you choose to use, Dunedin has the lowest median household income of all 15 cities in NZ (I refer you to the www.emigratenz.org/nz-cities-compared.html website).

Secondly, all NZ cities are assessed with their student populations duly included - so it is a level playing field; thus no skewing between cities.

Thirdly, Dunedin is getting poorer, not richer, with an ageing population. I could not find any government database nor any DCC source that supports your figures - are the figures in your first paragraph forward predictions? Can I know from when in time they are applicable? Do they represent Dunedin now or in twenty years time? Thanks.

And finally, I wouldn't necessarily agree that a measure of household income is an accurate reflection of the property they're in; and to rate purely on the basis of property values; especially since QV and the DCC have been pumping up rateable values for years to justify their increasing of rates.

I'm sure you can imagine any comment I'd make regarding the quality of the DCC's ability to budget - with or without their "expert" help - for any particular project.
The touch of Midas was either a blessing or a curse - depending on how you viewed his choices. The touch of the DCC, upon everything it blunders into, is by comparison distinctly faecal.

By the way, the Aussies here in FNQ were a tad grumpy about their thrashing in the first Bledisloe - naturally 'twas all blamed on the Wallabies' Kiwi coach.

Cheers,

Jeremy Belcher

I disagree

I disagree - any rates rise above the rate of inflation is bad because it compounds. It's not just a rates rise for this year, it's a rates rise forever. We never see the council reducing the rates back to the long-term inflation rate, or below it to make up for past increases - in this respect a rates increase of 10% this year and another 10% next year isn't really much different than an increase of 18% this year if you look at how much comes out of your pocket over the next decade or so.

Sure, the politicians can claim 'we only raised your rates this year by 10%' but if they do it again next year and never reduce it then they can claim they've 'kept rates rises down' when they haven't really done so. The only reason they've managed to get it to 7% this year is because of this hokey 'interest capitalisation' that will result in our rates rising higher in the medium to long term.

I think the new council we'll elect this year will be faced with Calvin's 18% rise, or higher - there's little I can see that they can do, other than getting the rugby people to raise their share of the stadium cost (just like we did the Regent).

What I think they can do is come to the citizens and say "We have to raise the rates, we don't have a choice, those other guys committed us to this without asking you, but we'll make you a deal - we're going to raise the rates this year but we're going to pass a binding bylaw that bars the council itself from raising rates more than inflation averaged over any 5 years".

It can have exceptions provided that there's a referendum - we're going to have to do that anyway to raise the billion dollars we're now told we're going to need to fix the city's water system.

Let it not be forgotten

Let's not overlook the fact, either, that we are not talking 'linear' rate-rises here, they will follow an exponential upward path. In which case, an 18 percent rise, (indeed any rise over ten-percent) is a highly significant determinant of what we will pay in the future, especially if introduced so early in the pay-back time-scale.

While You Were Away, Jeremy

The number of households (repeat households) in Dunedin where income is below $20,000 reduced from 10,830 to 7,665. The number of households where income is above $30,000 increased from 25,995 to 31,083, with a big chunk of that in the $50,000 plus.

You can make your own call, of course, but you well know that individual income levels in Dunedin are skewed by the high percentage of students who make up a fair chunk of the Dunedin-ites you refer to as receiving less than $20,000.

As a former councillor, you also know that household income is a fairer measure if one is talking about 'rates' which, of course, relate to property.

That is not to say that other relevant information and social factors are ignored. Far from it. Council has access to and takes into account a mine of information in making its budget decisions and, for the past two years, this has included a pre-Draft Annual Plan briefing by a highly experienced panel of economists including the local manager of the Ministry of Social Development.

Time to wake up lad and smell the coffee, instead of mixing out-of-date aspirin with cold soup.

City debt, and all else that glitters

Reading Thursday's loquacious castigation of Calvin Oaten by Cr Richard Walls, one could almost be forgiven for thinking Richard knew what he was talking about, and that Dunedin need not worry its little head at all regarding the rapid and massive increase of debt - especially when compared to what other cities are spending.

Yet irrespective of what other cities in NZ are up to, the point is that 63% of Dunedinites only earn or receive $20,000 pa or less, and if you spread the mounting debts across the 54,000 households it is quite clear that, "intergenerationally" or not, Dunedin cannot sustain such a heavy load on such a poor citizen base.

On a brighter note, however, the regular spin and other "Happiness Index" type of piffle regularly issued from an increasingly desperate council to remind Dunedin just how lucky it is - despite the cold reality of the place - brings to mind a possible candidate for the Council's search for a new slogan... thus I respectfully submit that we go with: "Dunedin - you can't polish a t*rd, but you can roll it in glitter!".

It's not to be sniffed at.

Yours sincerely,

Jeremy Belcher

Precise loan planning?

I don't think so. When an $88m project jumps an admitted $10m above the promised maximum and the final cost is yet to see the light of day, it is scarcely accurate to claim great precision in the council's loan planning. In fact, this council must be breaking new ground in the imprecision of it's financial management. The next council will have no difficulty in raising the bar from where it is currently buried.

Just more money for us to pay

While I haven't run the numbers to check the graphic, if the DCC is being honest here then I assume I assume that the capitalised interest is included in the higher numbers in later years - both as more principal to pay off and more interest on that principal. That 'more interest' means higher rates in the long run than we would have if we weren't paying off the debt the normal way.

The difference, of course, is that if we were paying off the interest the normal (and cheaper) way the rates rise in this election year would be much higher and the current council blamed for it - instead we should be blaming them for the future rates rises predicted by that graph.

Remember that Calvin's article went into great depth on finance, my note below is just a quick back of the envelope calculation based on the recent graphic from the DCC's year end report - Calvin's numbers probably should be considered more accurate.

Mine are just supporting numbers, done a different way, which confirm Calvin's conclusion.

Attitude changing

It would be funny if it weren't the common ratepayers' money - mine, for instance.

"The debate on council spending, on its projects - on anything - does, I suggest, need more rigour, objectivity and, dare I say it, more respect for the opinion of others than Mr Oaten brings to it," quoth Cr Walls, all ears all of a sudden now that October 9 canters into view.

Graphic denial

It is interesting to note in the debt servicing graphic to be presented to the Finance & Strategy committee - as depicted by Mikestik in 'More proof Calvin's correct'  - that, for instance, it shows the interest to be paid in 2010 at some $10.956m. What it doesn't show is the $12.262ml not being paid, but capitalised.

Will the F & S committee be informed of this?

More proof Calvin's correct

An upcoming report to the council's Finance committee (the one chaired by Mr Walls himself) contains, on the last page, a graphic that provides an excellent illustration of Calvin's contention of the need for an upcoming 18% rates rise.

'The projected rise of the debt servicing costs between 2010 and 2016 will require that the city raises an extra $20m a year - that's about 20% of the city's $98m rates take and so the debt will require a 20% rates rise to service.

Sadly, there's probably little we can do about this. The council's overspending has already been done - all we can do is vote them out so that it doesn't happen again.

Rates levels 'alright' for spenders, not payers

"Dunedin has one of the lowest average residential rates in the country," says Cr Walls.

That is very likely, since many towns do not have the amenities of a city to support. To put it in domestic terms, when a household of one person needs a load of firewood bought and stacked it is down to that one person. When it is a household of five people the same amount of wood keeps all of them warm and while there may be only one payer there are more hands for stacking.

We have the great greedy Fubar Stadium feeding off a relatively small, low median income ratepayer base and very little potential left for squeezing more money out for any other city needs or wants.

And now further knee-capping of our future has occurred uncannily close to the election with the go-ahead for town hall work and the $500,000 campaign to gather feel-good stories and disseminate them, a strategy chosen after the city slogan initiative attracted as much mockery as it deserved.

Spin, spin, spin

What else would you expect to hear from the most vocal of councillors? Election day coming. Everything in the garden is lovely.
Fast-forward four months. Who'd have known rates could jump so high? And so many unanticipated emergency expenses. How could we have possibly known? And the stadium. If only the public had let us know that they didn't really support the idea.