Sports statistics put to the test

When Keith Quinn called the 1987 World Cup final, he had the help of a man with a pencil and a notebook who kept track of the lineout statistics.

Now commentators have every sort of statistic available at the blink of a mouse click.

But which statistics actually matter?

Searching for what makes one rugby team better than another, a group of Portuguese and South African researchers analysed 64 International Rugby Board (IRB) tests and 95 Super 12 matches where there was a close result.

It studied "discriminant functions" - such things as possessions kicked, tackles made, passes completed, mauls won, turnovers won, kicks to touch and errors made.

The researchers' paper, published in the Journal of Sports Science and Medicine last year, revealed that in the Super 12 matches, the statistics did matter and a "kicking-based game supported by an effective defensive structure is more likely to win matches than a possession-based one".

"The winning teams made fewer rucks and pass movements, won more mauls and turnovers, completed fewer passes and made fewer errors.

"They also kicked a greater amount of their possession and made more tackles."

But, the same did not apply to close IRB test matches.

The study concluded it "did not identify any statistically significant differences between winners and losers" in close games [margins of 15 points or less] at that level.

The paper's author, Michele van Rooyen, told the Otago Daily Times the results of the research were "not surprising".

"The differences between two international teams during matches where the final points difference is less than 15 points are so minimal as to be mathematically insignificant.

"Matches can be determined by a single event, for example a moment of individual brilliance or an individual error and these differences will not show up on a simple statistical analysis of the game until you reach the final score."

 

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