The shortage may become "a major issue" for the hospitality, horticulture and viticulture industries, with large gaps expected in the thousands-strong workforces.
In September or October, the full seriousness of the shortage facing the seasonal work sectors would become apparent, Otago Forward chairman and Mayor of Queenstown Lakes District, Clive Geddes, said yesterday.
Otago Forward was formed in 2001 and is a mayoral joint committee - which includes all five of Otago's mayors - on regional economic development.
The group met at the Otago Regional Council Chambers, in Dunedin, yesterday.
Mr Geddes said, after the meeting, the threat of a lack of seasonal employees was one of the issues facing the Otago labour market.
"Many of these people may choose not to travel and we don't have a large enough pool of workers to cover that gap."
The number of workers required in the seasonal industries in Central Otago and the Queenstown Lakes District was equivalent to between 8000 and 10,000 full time employees - a large number in any region.
It was difficult to predict how bad the shortage would be, if indeed there was to be any shortage at all, until the season began, he said.
Otago Forward and territorial authorities would look to provide help to agencies if the shortage did happen, he said.
This could be in the form of publicity campaigns to attract workers.
The Vanuatan workers hired through Seasonal Solutions who stayed in the area for six months had provided some coverage for orchards, he said.
Summerfruit New Zealand chairman Gary Bennetts, of Roxburgh, said the season just finished was the best in years in terms of the management of seasonal labour, meaning there were plenty of employees to fill the gaps.
However, he realised North Island workers were less likely to travel to Otago for casual work this summer, but was optimistic lower airfares and the lower New Zealand dollar could mean a continuation of budget travellers willing to work seasonal jobs in horticulture.
"I like to think positive," he said.
Department of Labour market knowledge manager Paul Crack had prepared the report tabled at the Otago Forward meeting yesterday.
Mr Crack said unemployment figures, which are released today, are expected to have risen in Otago, but not as much as some regions in the North Island, which were expecting huge increases.
He said in his report that much had changed since December, when Otago unemployment rates were at 3.1%, down on the previous year.
"The impacts of the global financial meltdown are profound.
While Otago has proven somewhat insulated from the worst of these, no-one is immune or unaffected by adverse economic and trading effects.
"We still need to make the best use of our region's human resources.
We still want to avoid or offset the worst human impacts of recession.
And of course we still want regional growth, and for Otago to be the wealthiest per capita region of New Zealand."
Labour market challenges specific to Otago included incomes below the national average, a lack of people aged 25 to 44, skills gaps in key industries, workforce growth below national average and weak infrastructure.
Otago Forward will read Mr Crack's report and come back to him with ideas about regional economic development and how to ensure the prosperity of the region.
