Milton's continued push as the industrial heart of Clutha has been reinforced in a new report which predicts the town will be the only one in the district to grow over the coming decade.
The district's population, which last year stood at 17,200, is, at worst, tipped to drop by 1800 by the 2021 Census, while a more optimistic guess believes only 650 people will be lost.
The Projected Growth in the Clutha District document, tagged as a growth assumptions report, was prepared for the Clutha District Council as it starts looking to review its long-term council community plan to take effect from July next year.
Councillors yesterday welcomed the report but said it provided a challenge for the district to stop the potential for losing residents.
Deputy mayor Hamish Anderson hoped its authors would be able to eat their words over time, while Cr Jeff Seymour hoped the document would not be strictly referred to when making planning decisions, as he believed population figures would rise in time.
The report, which was prepared by council staff, said Milton, after going through a decline in past years, had recently become a "hotbed of activity".
Coastal areas such as Kaka Point and Taieri Mouth were expected to hold their numbers, but townships such as Benhar, Clinton and Tapanui could have fewer residents within the next 10 years.
The report suggests the rural sector will continue to be the economic backbone of the district, with dairying leading the way.
It assumes the high rate of dairy conversions will continue, sheep and beef returns will improve and deer returns will remain at similar levels.
Tourism is predicted to record strong ongoing growth in the coming decade but rising fuel prices and an increasing awareness by travellers of their carbon footprints may have some impact.
But recent population drops - the district lost 333 people between the 2001 and 2006 Censuses - look set to continue overall.
While there was a strong community desire to have a stable or growing population, there were no indications that Clutha would go against the national trend, and the underlying population decline was likely to continue.
