The fickleness of recent polls has been reinforced by a new survey which suggests the centre-right parties have a grip on power.
The new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll repeats the same outcome if an election was held today as it did last month — that the three parties in the current coalition government would retain power.
This contrasts with other polls which have the margin between left and right much closer, and the 1News/Verian poll from a fortnight ago, which had the centre-left parties able to form a government.
The new poll had National up slightly, to 37.3%, and Act New Zealand up 2.2% to 9.4%. They would need New Zealand First’s assistance to form a government and while that party was down 0.8% to 5.5% it was still clear of the MMP threshold.
The poll also brought good news for Labour, which was up 4.3% to 30%. Most of that gain was at the expense of the Green Party, which dropped 4.4% to record 10.2%.
Te Pāti Māori was on 3.1%, but the pollsters assumed it would hold its electorate seats.
That would result in 66 projected seats for the centre-right grouping (up two from last month) and 56 for the centre left, the same as in the April Curia poll.
The poll surveyed 1000 adult New Zealanders last week, and has a maximum margin of error of +/-3.1% .
