After the preliminaries, gloves will be off

It is time for a reality check on the election campaign.

If voters had any preconceptions that the election will be fought on clearly defined issues, they are going to be disappointed.

In the week ahead, it promises to get even more confusing, even for those of us who closely watch developments unfold.

A week of election campaign has all but finished this morning and party strategists will today be working out the best plan to bring forward for a Sunday afternoon launch, in the hope it can generate some headlines on Monday.

Last Sunday, Labour stole a march on National by announcing the Government-supported a bank deposit guarantee scheme.

Fish hooks in the scheme means it is not everything everyone imagined it would be, but many voters who have their money in banks would have breathed a sigh of relief when Prime Minister Helen Clark made the announcement.

Next, Miss Clark arrived in Dunedin and launched a plan for a universal student allowance by 2012.

The more than 1000 cheering students temporarily forgot that most of them will be gone before the scheme is fully in place and unless they have younger brothers or sisters, the deal means nothing to their families.

The issue that will not go away for Labour is how it is going to fund the big spending ticket items it has announced in a few short days of the campaign.

Having an economic plan to help New Zealand through the economic crisis sweeping the world is all very good if we have the money to pay for it.

Labour has made much of National's plan to borrow more money to fund infrastructure spending.

National plans to borrow 2% more of GDP than Labour for infrastructure, but Labour made capital on the policy.

But with Miss Clark announcing more than $1 billion of planned spending that could only be brought forward in a December mini-budget, the suspicion is that Labour, too, would have to borrow if it leads the next government.

On Monday, the Green Party will tell voters which major party it is prepared to work with after the election.

Please.

As if there is any doubt in the minds of most people.

"We have measured the two parties' policies, their programmes and their public statements, compared them with each other and assessed them against 12 criteria, published on October 9, to measure to what extent they will make New Zealand a fairer and more sustainable nation," co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons said yesterday.

The results of this work will be announced on Monday, in line with the promise to tell New Zealanders who the Greens would prefer to work with after the election, she said.

The Greens will be hard pressed to convince any of its core supporters that going with National is a good option.

There are some wealthy Green supporters who ease their consciences by ticking Green to help save the planet.

But given the rhetoric coming out of the Green Party offices, it is difficult to see any option but Labour for Ms Fitzsimons.

That gives a Labour-Green bloc for the election.

United Future would be prepared to go with either Labour or National, as it has done previously.

Act New Zealand will only work with National but National Party leader John Key has ruled out having Sir Roger Douglas (of Rogernomics fame) in cabinet.

Miss Clark has not ruled out having stood down foreign affairs minister, and New Zealand First leader, Winston Peters as a cabinet minister after the election.

Mr Key would not work with him, he said as recently as Tuesday, on the leaders' debate.

That leaves Labour-Greens-NZ First-United Future and Progressive leader Jim Anderton.

National has Act and possibly United Future.

Wednesday looms as the big day for both Labour and National.

Why? Because it is scheduled as the day the Maori Party, which has assumed a huge importance in this election, is due to release its Treaty of Waitangi policy.

A quick check yesterday revealed that voters believed that abolishing the Maori seats was a core National Party policy, and had been since former leader Don Brash roared up the popularity polls after his Orewa speech.

There appears to be some confusion around whether Mr Key told Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples he was prepared to forgo that policy, if push came to shove.

The National Party website yesterday was still carrying the following declarations:Confirms National's intention to wind up the Maori seats at the conclusion of the settlement of historic Treaty claims.

Hold a binding referendum on MMP no later than 2011.

In Dunedin on Thursday, Mr Key was questioned hard about whether or not he had told Dr Sharples that the policy on seats was gone by lunchtime if the Maori Party would support a National-led government.

He said the policy was not "bottom-line" but any deal would wait until the election.

He would not prejudge the result of the election and he did not know what else the Maori Party would bring to the negotiating table.

Mr Key still wanted to get everyone on a universal roll.

It brought back into play the secret taping of National deputy leader Bill English saying the party wanted to win at any cost.

The stakes for Labour and National are high and both obviously want to win at any cost.

For Miss Clark, the prospect of leading the government for a fourth term is compelling.

Another loss for National will be devastating and many of its supporters will drift away.

The Maori Party has been openly hostile to Labour and warmish towards National.

Reaction to the treaty policy is all-important.

From tomorrow, rules, and probably some principles, will be thrown out the window.

It is all about winning, at any cost.

The week ended quietly for both Miss Clark and Mr Key.

No clear winner yesterday.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

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