Budget frees up $5.2b of spending

John Scandrett
John Scandrett
The Government's books are set to return to surplus sooner, although Finance Minister Bill English is juggling several balls in the air to ensure this happens.

In yesterday's Budget, he managed to "free up" $5.2 billion of spending out to 2014-15, including $700 million next year, to invest in improving frontline public services and reduce debt.

The $5.2 billion comes from money from previously allocated funding which has not been spent.

About $4 billion of those savings will go into higher-priority spending, with about $3 billion of that going into health and education.

The balance would go into reducing growth in Government debt, he said.

"Taken together, Budget decisions mean the Government is forecast to return to a healthy surplus in 2014-15 - a year earlier than projected in the December update - with growing surpluses in future years."

Also, Mr English is demanding further savings from the public service totalling $980 million over three years.

That initiative would ensure the state sector faced the same pressures as the private sector to improve efficiency and productivity.

The aim was to reduce costs across the public sector while ensuring the Government continued to provide the critical services that were important to New Zealanders.

A key component of the initiative was a new requirement for state sector employers to meet the costs of KiwiSaver, the state sector retirement savings scheme and the teachers retirement savings scheme from within their budgets.

Currently, many state sector employers were centrally funded for the costs of those schemes, he said.

That central funding would end on July 1 next year, placing state sector employers on the same footing as other employers. Eliminating the central funding would save $650 million over three years.

A further $330 million in efficiency savings would be sought from core government agencies, Mr English said.

"Insulating state sector employers from these costs is inconsistent with the Government's efforts to rebalance the economy towards the tradeable sector. It is important that state sector employers face the same personnel costs as private sector employers."

The Budget included next to nothing relating to business incentives, causing some to question how viable Mr English's forecasts were.

Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive John Scandrett said regional employers would be questioning whether the "rather cautious" Budget had any chance of delivering the long-term balanced economic growth they sought.

"The Finance Minister tabled anticipated wage-increase expectations of 4% a year for the next four years, but I can tell you that currently, with local businesses under viability pressure, wage and salary increases, if there are any at all, will be on the south side of 2% a year.

"The signalled level of forward wage uplift may therefore be difficult to identify at this time."

There appeared to be no Budget references to what employers regarded as key areas such as export-growth objectives or assistance for manufacturers, he said.

"Certainly, maintaining our sovereign rating level has a connected benefit to overall corporate health."

Improvements in investor access to local capital markets waved a positive flag; there might be a benefit to Dunedin through the expanded KiwiRail $250-million allocation; and there would be new business opportunities in Christchurch for Otago and Southland organisations, Mr Scandrett said.

ANZ-National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the Government had done enough fiscally to prevent a credit rating downgrade. "The question marks surround the sustainability of the external position, with the Treasury projecting the current account deficit to widen towards 6.9%. Ratings agencies will remain watchful," he said.

- dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

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