Rugby: Playoff picture starting to emerge

Wellington coach Chris Boyd.
Wellington coach Chris Boyd.
In one month's time, two teams will put their names in the history books of the ITM Cup.

Someone will win the Premiership and have the right to claim supremacy as New Zealand's top provincial rugby union, while the Championship victors can celebrate promotion and look forward to life with the big boys next season.

One team will also taste the disappointment of relegation and face the axe from the top flight.

With that in mind, let's take a look at who are heading towards the playoffs or who can start planning their golf days from October 13 onwards when the regular season wraps up.

In the Premiership, Wellington, Canterbury and Auckland will be in the top four with Wellington likely to finish first and secure home advantage, while the battle for second place could come down to Auckland and Canterbury's game tomorrow night. 

If Auckland were to win it would put them in a strong position to host a semifinal but they still have to face the league-leading Lions in the capital next week, while Canterbury have a more generous run home with outings against North Harbour and Counties Manukau.

The Lions meet Waikato in Hamilton tonight and Wellington coach Chris Boyd said his side weren't looking at securing a home semifinal yet.

"I know that in Super Rugby, getting home advantage because of the travel is a major issue," Boyd said.

"I haven't looked and seen if, historically, home advantage equals benefit ... We'd like to be able to play at home in our own stadium. But certainly we haven't talked about it and I'm sure every team is exactly the same, they'd all like to play at home."

Counties are shaping as the likely fourth-place finishers in the Premiership, which is a commendable effort for Tana Umaga's men in their first season in the big league.

The only problem for them is finishing fourth means a likely trip to the Cake Tin to meet the Lions and Wellington beat Counties 55-16 in the season-opener last month.

Bay of Plenty are off the pace at the base of the Premiership and a loss to Counties on Sunday would all but confirm their relegation to the Championship.

Waikato are also facing the drop but have a game in hand on the Steamers and an easier draw in the final few weeks.

In the Championship, all seven teams are in with a shout of the playoffs with three rounds to go.

Tasman lead the pack on 18 points and seem destined to be involved in the finals, while Hawkes Bay have too much talent to miss out and Southland have won their past two.

Otago, Manawatu, North Harbour and Northland all appear to be scrapping for the final spot in the playoffs, which will come down to how they finish what has been a brutal competition with short turnarounds and a high attrition rate.

Finishing last in the Championship doesn't bring demotion, just the disappointment associated with knowing something went wrong with your campaign.

Would it be out of the question to see the bottom-placed team face the Heartland XV at season's end?


Daniel Richardson's picks for the playoffs

Premiership: Wellington, Auckland, Canterbury, Counties Manukau. Winner: Wellington

Championship: Tasman, Hawkes Bay, Otago, Southland. Winner: Tasman


 

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