The report was commissioned by Selwyn District Council to assist it in future decision-making.
In 2022, Selwyn’s population was 79,000, compared to 27,600 in 2000, a growth of 4.9 per cent per annum.
This makes it the second fastest growing district in New Zealand, behind the Queenstown-Lakes District.
Statistics New Zealand December 2022 population projections indicate the district will cross 100,000 by 2029 and will reach almost 150,000 by 2053 – compared to 137,000 in the 2018 high projection.
To help fill this demand the report has outlined how many houses will need to be built in the short-to-medium term (10 years) and in the long term (30 years).
In the short-to-medium term, it is estimated there will need to be 12,547 new dwellings, at a rate of 1255 a year. In the long term, it is estimated there is a need for 32,763 new dwellings, at a rate of 1092 a year.
To assist with some of the demand, areas in the district’s three largest towns have been allocated medium density housing zones (up to three stories), a requirement of being in a tier one council area. While these areas are zoned medium density, there is no requirement to build to this specification.
Mayor Sam Broughton said the busier towns and intensification are issues he gets a lot of feedback on from the community.
“Some of that is really positive because it has bought new amenities for towns. But some people may think they need to go somewhere that is a bit quieter, there has been a full spectrum of views.”
Ray White real estate agent Brendan Shefford said people would buy the medium density housing, because it would be more affordable.
“Originally people would move to Selwyn for the bigger section, but not everyone wants a 750m2 section now,” Shefford said.
Shefford believed the number of houses required could be built if some of the regulatory processes were streamlined by the Government and the district council.
“They’ve got the land for them, they now have to drop the red tape to get the land developed.”
What does all this growth mean for community services
Infrastructure implications
To go along with the population and housing growth, the district’s infrastructure also has to keep up.
Broughton said that is one of the key reasons why these reports are done to ensure the district council doesn’t “get caught short” on the needs within the district.
He said an example of the infrastructure is the modular design of the Rolleston wastewater treatment plant, originally designed to service 60,000 people now being upgraded to service 120,000 people.
There will also be increased demand on other community services like health and education.
Broughton said the district council works with Government and private organisations to ensure that non-council services are sufficient, available and up to standard.
The district will also need to focus on connecting people.
Broughton said his last six years of Environment Canterbury’s Annual Plan submissions have focused on the public transport system.
“The Rolleston to Christchurch route is one of the highest used in the city,” he said.
There are plans for a light rail to be connected to Hornby with a park-and-ride set-up. Broughton said when the time comes he would like to see Rolleston connected up to at as well.
What is going on where you live
The Rolleston situation
Rolleston remains the largest town in the district and is estimated to grow by 181 per cent in the next 30 years. To meet the demand it is being proposed that all residential zones within the existing greenfield areas be changed to medium density housing zones.
“This is an immense change in the planning framework, with total plan enabled capacity now estimated to be around 69,330 new dwellings or around seven times the existing number of dwellings in the town,” the report states.
In the medium-short term, it is expected 6980 new dwellings will need to be built, and 18,230 will need to be built in the long term. It is estimated there will be a small deficiency in the short term of 450 dwellings and a larger deficiency in the long term of 3330 dwellings. The long-term deficiency won’t occur until 2047, but it should be monitored.
Lincoln
Lincoln is the second largest town in the district and is estimated to grow by 174 per cent. Like Rolleston, it is being proposed all residential zones within the existing greenfield areas be changed to medium density housing.
“Total plan enabled capacity (is) now estimated to be around 32,200 new dwellings,” the report states.
In the short-to-medium term, it is expected 2510 new dwellings will need to be built, and 6550 will need to be built in the long term. It is estimated there will be a deficiency in the long term of 1130 dwellings.
Prebbleton
As the third largest town in the district and the closest to the edge of Christchurch Prebbleton is also expecting a demand, but less than Rolleston or Lincoln, growing by 62 per cent in the long term.
In total, the demand projections suggest there is a need for around 420 new dwellings in the coming decade and 1100 in the long term. It is projected there will be sufficient supply to meet these demands.
Smaller parts of the district
While the main growth is expected in Rolleston, Lincoln and Prebbleton, the effects will also be felt further out in the district. Along with current private plan changes the district council is looking at other growth areas.
• West Melton: Two sites totalling 16ha on Weedons Ross Rd, which is surrounded by existing development Wilfield, will be available in the long term and is currently signalled to be a large lot residential zone.
• Kirwee: Two areas totalling 66ha, either side of Hoskyns Rd, west of Kirwee Cemetery, will be available in the long term and are currently signalled to be a settlement zone
• Darfield: Five areas totalling 95ha, between West Coast Rd and Clintons Rd, will be available in the long term and are currently signalled to be large lot residential zone.
• Leeston: Two areas adjacent to the northern boundary of the town, with a total land area of 118ha, will be available in the long term and are currently signalled to be a large lot residential zone.
• Southbridge: Four areas around the east, south and north of the town, with a total land area of 43ha, will be available in the long term and are currently signalled to be low density residential zones.
• Hororata: Three areas around the east, south and north of the town, with total land area of 68ha. The north and southern areas will be available in the long term and are currently signalled to be large lot residential zones, while the central area would be settlement zone.
• Glentunnel: Three areas around the east, south and north of the townships, with total land area of 48ha. The area north of Glentunnel will be available in the long term and is currently planned to be a settlement zone.
• Coalgate: The area to the west of Coalgate will be available in the long term and is currently signalled to be a low density residential zone. The area to the south of Coalgate is signalled to be a large lot residential zone.
• Sheffield and Waddington: There are three areas around the west and north of the townships, with total land area of 44ha. The areas in the north will be available in the long term and are currently signalled to be settlement zones, while the large triangular area is signalled to be a large lot residential zone.
• Springfield: There are two areas around the west and south of the township, with a total land area of 52ha. The areas will be available in the long term and are currently signalled to be mostly large lot residential zones and some settlement zones.
• Castle Hill: 8ha to the north of the township, available in the long term and signalled to be a general residential zone.
• Lake Coleridge: 9ha to the south of the township, available in the long term and signalled to be a settlement zone.
