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Raf Manji said he was not surprised Gerry Brownlee lost his Ilam electorate to Labour's Sarah Pallett on Saturday night after 24 years in the seat.
Manji, who came second in the Ilam electorate in 2017, said Brownlee has not had enough of a presence in his electorate over the past few years.
"I don't think you can just turn up once every three years and do three weekends of street-corner meetings and feel like you're fully engaged in the community."
For the first time in history, every party vote in the South Island went to Labour in Saturday night's election.
Manji said the swing in Canterbury is due to the spread and growth of urban Christchurch into areas such as Selwyn and Waimakariri.
"So those are not just rural seats anymore - we are starting to see a lot of urban commuters moving into those zones as well."
The results from the Ilam electorate:
Sarah Pallett (Labour) - 16,381
Gerry Brownlee (National)- 14,161
David Bennett (Green)- 2384