The political balance of power is likely to be influenced by elections in five key Christchurch wards: Central, Innes, Heathcote, Coastal, and Riccarton.
Three of these wards are held by left-leaning The People’s Choice incumbents, while left-leaning Coastal Ward councillor Celeste Donovan is an independent. Heathcote is an open contest, as left-leaning independent Sara Templeton is standing for mayor only.
This means there are five key opportunities for candidates who do not identify as left-leaning to win, potentially shifting influence away from the left-leaning voting bloc and assisting Mauger, who is right-leaning, in a possible second-term.
However, many challengers to left-leaning incumbents emphasise their independence from Mauger and identify more with political centrism than right-leaning politics.
Mauger can usually only rely on six city councillors to back him during politically-charged votes, but eight are needed for a majority.
His priorities typically lean right politically, with a stated focus on fiscal discipline and reducing rates increases.
Mauger and nine city councillors supported the move, but public backlash slowed momentum. The council later voted 8-7 against handing control to CCHL.
Mauger has since ruled out selling the port, airport and Orion.
He and his allies often say they need “one more vote” or a “working majority”.
Lost battles have included attempts to remove the Park Tce temporary cycleway and cut funding for a pedestrian-friendly Gloucester St.
Templeton, Mauger’s main rival for the mayoralty, would require the left-leaning bloc to hold or expand in order to best progress her priorities – investing more in water infrastructure and blocking asset sales.
However, unlike Parliament, the council has no formal government or opposition.
Voting blocs are informal, many decisions are unanimous, and city councillors sometimes break from allies, and all city councillors are considered equal partners in governance and decision-making.
Currently, eight of the 16 city councillors reliably vote with the left-leaning bloc.
This includes all six People’s Choice incumbents standing for re-election: deputy mayor Pauline Cotter (Innes), Melanie Coker (Spreydon), Jake McLellan (Central), Tyla Harrison-Hunt (Riccarton), Yani Johanson (Linwood), and Tyrone Fields (Banks Peninsula).
Independents Templeton and Donovan (Coastal) almost always vote with People’s Choice on divisive political issues.
Peters is the most likely of the group to break ranks.
MacDonald and Gough belong to the Independent Citizens ticket, while Mauger and his other allies stand as independents.
Two city councillors – Andrei Moore (Halswell) and Tim Scandrett (Cashmere) – are more centrist and often decide close votes.
If the left bloc remains united, they only need either Moore or Scandrett, or a defection from the right side to form a vote-wining majority.
By contrast, the right bloc must remain unanimous and win both centrists’ support, or peel away left votes, to succeed.
David Cartwright is the likely right-leaning replacement in Fendalton, endorsed by outgoing councillor Gough.
Coker and Johanson, representing Spreydon and Linwood, are likely to win due to those wards’ left-leaning voting history.
Scandrett and Moore also have strong chances of re-election in Cashmere and Halswell.
With Templeton pursuing the mayoralty, Heathcote is the only one of the five highly-competitive wards without an incumbent.
It is a two-way race between People’s Choice candidate and former Living Wage Movement organiser Nathaniel Herz-Jardine and Sumner lawyer Ian Kearney.
It is a rematch in Innes Ward between deputy mayor Cotter and former city councillor Ali Jones.
Cotter won the last election by a razor-thin eight-vote margin.
In the Central Ward, incumbent McLellan will need to fend off high-profile challenges from former city councillor Raf Manji and community advocate Hayley Guglietta.
In Riccarton, incumbent Harrison-Hunt will also have to beat four other candidates.
They are Riccarton Bush-Kilmarnock Residents Association chair Tony Simons, longtime community board member Debbie Mora, 2022 Riccarton runner-up property developer Sam Yau, and café owner Mark Chirnside.
If one or two of these challengers – Jones, Kearney, Zervos, Manji, Simons, Mora, or Yau – win, it could shift influence away from the left-leaning bloc.
This assumes the left-leaning bloc does not gain additional city councillors and Mauger retains the mayoralty.
Of these seven candidates, Manji and Yau have been the most in favour of exploring partial strategic asset sales.
Jones, Zervos, Simons and Mora say they neither support or oppose sales with the general view being they would analyse options further with more information if elected.
Kearney had been non-committal when previously asked by media about asset sales, but has come out against at least a sale of the port.
These key five ward elections will likely determine the political leanings of the city council, but three other ward races are also worth watching – Burwood, Papanui and Banks Peninsula.
