The Scottish government cannot hold a second referendum on independence without approval from the British parliament, the United Kingdom's top court has ruled, dealing a hammer blow to nationalists' hopes of holding a vote next year.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), had announced earlier this year she intended to hold an advisory vote on secession in October 2023, but that it had to be lawful and internationally recognised.
After the UK Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday she could not do so without the approval of the United Kingdom parliament, she repeated her vow to campaign in the next UK-wide election, expected to be held in 2024, solely on a platform of whether Scotland should be independent, making it a "de facto" referendum.
"We must and we will find another democratic, lawful and constitutional means by which the Scottish people can express their will. In my view, that can only be an election," Sturgeon told reporters.
"As of today, democracy is what is at stake ... It is now about whether or not we even have the basic democratic right to choose our own future."
In a referendum in 2014, Scots rejected ending the more-than 300-year-old union with England by 55% to 45%, but nationalists argue that the vote for Brexit two year later, which the majority of Scottish voters opposed, changed everything.
However, the British government in London has repeatedly said it would not grant permission for another plebiscite, saying it should be a once-in-a-generation event.
In a unanimous verdict of five judges, the Supreme Court ruled the Scottish government could not pass legislation paving the way for an advisory second referendum without the approval of the UK parliament.
"We respect the clear and definitive ruling of the Supreme Court," British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said.
"I think that the people of Scotland want us to be working on fixing the major challenges that we collectively face, whether that's the economy, supporting the NHS (National Health Service), or indeed supporting Ukraine, now is the time for politicians to work together."
No way forward for Nationalists?
Under the 1998 Scotland Act, which created the Scottish parliament and devolved some powers from Westminster, all matters relating to the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England are reserved to the UK parliament. The court concluded any referendum, even advisory, would be a reserved matter.
Sturgeon's left-wing SNP, which has dominated Scottish politics for more than a decade and won the overwhelming majority of Scottish seats in the 2019 UK election, has argued that the refusal of the British government to allow another vote means the views of Scots are being ignored.
SNP president Michael Russell told Reuters that calling a de facto referendum was a gamble because his party could fail to win more than half the votes at the next election. But, he said, the court ruling showed the United Kingdom was not a voluntary partnership of nations.
The UK government position "essentially says to the people of Scotland that your votes don't matter. That is a very foolish thing for any government to say to a population."
London argues it would be wrong to hold another divisive independence vote during a cost of living and energy crisis, while war rages in Ukraine and the country recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Independence campaigners say it should be for Scotland to decide how to respond to these major issues, given that the right-wing British government is unpopular in Scotland, where support for Sunak's Conservative Party is currently running at about 15% according to latest polls.
More than a dozen pro-independence rallies were planned across Scotland and parts on Europe on Wednesday, with the largest expected outside the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh where supporters will claim that democracy is being denied.
Should there be a second referendum, polls suggest voters remain evenly split and a vote would be too close to call, with what currency an independent Scotland would use or whether it could rejoin the European Union, the key issues.
Critics say Sturgeon and the SNP have failed to answer these questions adequately.
How another vote could happen
Here is the history of the push for Scottish independence and how another vote could happen:
ACT OF UNION
The nations of Britain have shared the same monarch since 1603, when King James VI of Scotland became James I of England. In 1707, a formal union created the Kingdom of Great Britain.
Now, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland binds England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and has an overall population of about 68 million, of which Scots make up some 5.5 million.
In 1998, the then Labour government passed the Scotland Act which created the Scottish parliament and devolved some powers from Westminster.
ONCE-IN-A-GENERATION VOTE
Both sides agreed at the time of the 2014 plebiscite that it should be a once-in-a-generation poll. However, Scottish nationalists say Brexit means they should be allowed a second vote. While the United Kingdom as a whole voted in favour of leaving the European Union in 2016, a clear majority in Scotland voted to stay in the bloc.
Independence supporters say one of the main arguments put forward in 2014 by opponents of a break-up was that an independent Scotland could not join the EU.
The left-wing, nationalist Scottish National Party (SNP), which has run Scotland's devolved assembly since 2007, also argues that the UK government has pursued policies with which the vast majority of Scots disagree.
In the last national election for the UK parliament in 2019, the SNP won 45% of votes cast and 48 of the 59 Scottish seats, while Britain's governing right-wing Conservative Party captured just six.
POLITICAL PRESSURE
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on Wednesday she would now turn the next general election due in two years into a de facto referendum to ramp up the pressure on the British government to grant another vote.
Sturgeon said she would ask her party's national executive committee to discuss and agree the detail of how they would use the next election as a de facto referendum. She said her party will now "launch and mobilise a major campaign in defence of Scottish democracy".
James Mitchell, a professor of politics at Edinburgh University, said a decision to call for the next election to be a de facto referendum would be a "major gamble".
Even if the SNP won more than 50% of the vote in Scotland it was still unlikely the British government would agree to negotiate a new referendum deal and Sturgeon would have very little international support, Mitchell said.
In their best ever election result in 2015, the SNP fell just short of 50% of the votes.
If the SNP fails to win more than half of Scots' votes they may have to accept that voters have made their decision and the issue would be settled for a generation, he said.
"It is difficult to see her continuing in office" if that happened, he said. "Internal dissent has been building for some time and it seems most likely that the gamble of a 'de facto' referendum - very much out of character for a very cautious politician - is her last throw of the dice."
KINGMAKER ROLE
At the next UK general election, if the main opposition Labour Party is the largest party in the London parliament, but falls short of a majority, the SNP could support a minority government in return for being given permission to allow Scotland to hold another independence referendum.
Labour has ruled out any deal with the SNP after the next election that must be held by January 2025, saying this scenario is talked up by political opponents to damage the party.
Michael Keating, a professor of politics at the University of Aberdeen, said such a deal is unlikely because Labour "would be accused of putting the unity of the United Kingdom at risk for short term gain".
"Then they would look pretty vulnerable," he said. "They would be more likely to say we are forming a minority government" and challenge the SNP to vote to bring the government down, he said.
UNAUTHORISED REFERENDUM
Sturgeon has previously said she would only seek to secede from the United Kingdom through a legally agreed referendum.
Sturgeon is under pressure from some activists frustrated with her gradualist strategy to call a referendum without the British parliament's permission. But unionists could boycott this vote and claim the result lacks legitimacy.
If the independence movement was to hold a referendum without the consent of the British government, it could also struggle to gain international recognition if it won. That would mirror the situation in Spain over Catalonia four years ago, when the regional government held an independence referendum that the central government said was illegal.
