The poll, released today, also shows Winston Peters and New Zealand First above the 5 percent threshold and returning to Parliament, while for the first time the Labour and National leaders are on level-pegging in the preferred PM race.
The poll shows National up 1.6 percentage points from last month to 34.9 percent, while Labour is down 4 points to 27.1 percent.
Act is on 13 percent and the Greens, where most of the Labour supporters appear to have moved after Chris Hipkins ruled out the Greens’ wealth tax, are up 3.1 points to 12 percent.
New Zealand First is on 5.8 percent, up 2.5 points, while Te Pāti Māori is on 2.5 percent.
Translated to seats in Parliament, National and Act would together hold a one-seat majority of 61 seats, while Labour would have 34 seats, the Greens 15, New Zealand First seven, and Te Pāti Māori three.
Despite the fall in his party’s support, Hipkins has gone up two points in the preferred PM stakes to 25 percent, but National leader Christopher Luxon is up five points to be on level-pegging, also on 25 percent. Peters and Act leader David Seymour are both on 7 percent.
It follows the latest Newshub Reid Research poll last week that had National and Act forming a government with 63 seats in Parliament, while Labour had dropped to 32.3 percent.
The July 1News Verian poll also had National and Act being able to form a government - with a one-seat majority, mirroring the Essential poll.
And the latest New Zealand Herald poll of polls has a 59.1 percent probability that National and Act would be able to form a government if the election was held this weekend.
It follows a turbulent month for Labour, including the Kiri Allan saga that culminated in her resignation, leaks to National including claims about Labour’s tax plan to remove GST from fruit and vegetables, and allegations of a massive fiscal hole.
Asked yesterday about the polls, Hipkins said: “The polls from New Zealand-based polling companies are showing that it’s a tight race. That’s certainly what’s being reflected in our own research at the moment, and is being reflected in the sentiment on the ground. But I would note that the Labour Party hasn’t started its campaign yet.”
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll was conducted from August 3 to August 8, a period that included the Greens wanting free dental care paid for by a wealth tax, and Labour releasing its plan for a second Auckland harbour crossing.
The sample size was 1000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel.
The margin of error is 3.1 percent.
