Three new cases as alert level 2 dates announced

The Government has revealed three new Covid-19 cases ahead of an announcement later this afternoon about when the country will move to alert level 2.

There was no media conference today, with new Covid-19 cases instead revealed in a press release about 1pm.

In the press release the Ministry of Health said two cases were linked to the St Margaret’s Hospital & Rest Home in Auckland. The individuals are both nurses at Waitakere Hospital.

Both had been asymptomatic throughout a stand-down period which they spent in precautionary self-isolation at home.

They were tested as part of routine requirements for their safe return to work and the results came back positive.  They remain in isolation awaiting further testing.

Although further cases in clusters cannot be ruled out, strong precautionary measures remain in place at the hospital and the St Margaret's facility.

The third case is a person who has travelled back from overseas, so is an imported case.  

The total number of confirmed and probable cases in the country is now 1497. There are just 10 active cases in Canterbury and two in South Canterbury. 

It comes as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her Cabinet Ministers will at 4pm reveal to New Zealand if the country is ready to move into alert level 2 following a meeting that will take the best part of five hours.

But it faces an increasingly pressured backdrop following a leaked email from the PM's office and, this morning, a warning from a leading epidemiologist that he wants to pause on a full move to level two, saying public complacency is a "major problem".

Ministers met at 10.30am this morning for an extended Cabinet meeting to discuss the move. Ardern, along with director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield, will front media with the decision at 4pm. The decision will be broadcast live on starnews.co.nz

The meeting follows a leaked email from the Prime Minister's office which said ministers did not need to front to media to answer questions about the huge number of documents released on the Covid crisis.

Former MP Peter Dunne said today that email was a sign this Government was no different from any others in practising 9th floor "grubby" tactics.

While the PM's office has called the email "clumsy", Dunne told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking "that doesn't hide the fact they see themselves as bullet-proof, 'we don't need to explain, everyone loves us'."

"People have not seen [Jacinda Ardern] a control freak before... this reveals the reality. It also acknowledges the fact this is a Cabinet with some mighty weak links, probably more than average."

Today's Cabinet meeting and decision reflects how far ahead New Zealand is in combating the virus - the number of cases globally has now passed the four million mark, with 281,000 deaths. The United States and Britain have the two worst death tolls.

Overnight, the UK's Sunday Times reported that the Queen is due to withdraw from public duties for months - in what could be the longest absence of her 68-year reign.

If Cabinet decides the country is ready to come out of level 3, New Zealand could move to alert level 2 as early as Wednesday.

And if level 2 is greenlighted, one of the country's top epidemiology experts says the Government should consider making masks on public transport compulsory.

"This would give us another line of defence," Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said.

Baker supported a phased approach to level 2.

"Thinking logically, you might begin with the most controlled environments, like workplaces and schools, where risk can be minimised."

Then, once officials are sure level 2 was showing signs of success, the Government could loosen restrictions on places like bars and nightclubs, he said.

He told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking today that complacency and rule-breaking were common right now.

But people need to get back to work and get the economy moving. He just wants to make sure the public is properly on board with the requirements of level 2 - levels 3 and 4 had easier rules to follow

"It needs to be pretty clear to everyone what's involved."

Alcohol was one concern - a lot of people were gathering and socialising, and the new habits many people had learned in lockdown had gone out the window.

"I think it's critical to get everyone back to work...it's good for health, it's good for the economy.

Earlier, Baker said Cabinet has a "tough balancing act" to consider when making its decision today.

It needed to weigh up public health against the potential economic impact of extending level 3, he added.

"In many ways [from a health perspective] levels 3 and 4 were easy – people had to stay home unless they had a good reason."

But going to level 2 would be a big jump, given social restrictions would be loosened considerably, compared to the other alert levels, he said.

Levels 3 and 4 were more tightly policed, with specific requirements and restrictions; "level 2 relies on people's individual judgment".

In level 2, shops will open, people can go to bars and cafes, domestic travel is allowed and people will again be allowed to gather at events of fewer than 100 people.

Baker said this is where the risk of a second wave is most pronounced, which was why he believed people should have to wear masks on public transport and planes.

Today's decision is hugely significant from an economic and a health perspective.

Ministers, some in the Cabinet meeting room and others joining via video link, will weigh up advice from the Health Ministry and other key agencies before making the final call.

It comes after New Zealand effectively ground to a halt almost six weeks ago when the country went into lockdown at alert level 4.

The economic impact of the lockdown has been stark – recently released Treasury documents reveal officials expect 300,000 people to be out of work in September.

Businesses, the Opposition and even Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters have all lobbied for the Government to move as fast as possible into the less restrictive level 2.

National leader Simon Bridges said tens of thousands of jobs have already been lost.

"This has gone on too long – it's time to put more trust in everyday New Zealanders and get working again."

But Ardern has been clear – New Zealand would only move to level 2 when it is safe.

"We think of ourselves as halfway down Everest. I think it is clear that no one wants to hike back up that peak," she said last week.

From a health perspective, director general of health Ashley Bloomfield has always said his advice would be based on a sustained period of low new cases, low to no community transmission and an ironclad understanding of where each case came from.

He told the Herald last week a number of cases had an unclear source, but officials were investigating.

Bloomfield will brief ministers today on his recommendation.

This comes after a week of consistently low new cases of Covid-19.

There were just 11 new cases in the past seven days. For two days there were no new cases.

Yesterday, there were just two new cases and no further Covid-19 related deaths. The Ministry of Health also revealed that 92 per cent of all Covid-19 cases have now recovered.

One option for Ardern and her Cabinet is the phasing into level 2, which she has spoken about publicly.

Summary

About the data:

• Source: This is provisional information taken daily at 9am from a live database, EpiSurv (ESR) and is likely to change as more details are provided about individual cases.
• Confirmed cases are people that have had a positive laboratory test. For more details please refer to Case definition of COVID-19 infection.
• A probable case is one without a positive laboratory result, but which is treated like a confirmed case based on its exposure history and clinical symptoms. 
• Recovered cases are people who had the virus, are at least 10 days since onset and have not exhibited symptoms for 48 hours, and have been cleared by the health professional responsible for their monitoring.

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Total cases by DHB

As at 9.00 am, 11 May 2020

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Total cases by DHB in hospital

Note: No cases are in ICU as at 9:00am 11 May 2020.