University v HSOB
Qualifying final 1 (1st v 4th)
Last result: 37-35 to University (May 20)
The last time these two teams clashed, University had just toppled early pace-setters Marist Albion to win the DCL Shield and High School Old Boys were struggling at 10th place on the ladder. Since then, HSOB have been on a roll – winning their last five games comfortably with a settled line-up each week. Although University secured hosting rights by winning the Bascik Transport Premier Cup, HSOB have won their last two games on the road and in wet conditions. Meanwhile, University have seen some injury problems of late. However, University have shown they can win under pressure – four of the team’s wins this season have been within six points. The table leaders surprisingly lost the DCL Shield to Shirley two weeks ago before they managed to finish their regular season with a 43-31 win over last-placed Belfast. The winner will have a rest week next Saturday while the loser plays either Linwood or Shirley.
Prediction: HSOB by 6-10
Marist Albion v Lincoln University
Qualifying final 2 (2nd v 3rd)
Last result: 31-24 to Lincoln University (June 10)
Marist Albion started the season with a bang by beating Sydenham in a rematch of last year’s final 35-13 back in April. Although they have suffered recent losses to New Brighton and Lincoln University, Marist’s consistency has seen them stay in the top four throughout the three months of round robin. They will be on home turf for their clash against Lincoln University this time, unlike last month when they were beaten 31-24 in a mudbath at Lincoln University. The Rams’ scoring ability is no doubt one of the best, if not the best, of the competition. They finished the regular season with an average score of 38.5 per game, the most of any team. Lincoln University will be out for revenge after Marist knocked the Rams out of last year’s preliminary finals with a 41-26 win. The loser plays the winner of the New Brighton and Sumner clash.
Prediction: Lincoln University by 6-10
Linwood v Shirley
Elimination final 1 (5th v 8th)
Last result: 45-14 to Linwood (June 10)
Shirley surprised many with their 29-19 win over University at Ilam Fields two weeks ago, which saw them sneak into the playoffs. It’s been a mixed bag of results for the Vikings so far this year, with their other wins against Belfast, Christchurch and Sumner. However, their 12 bonus points from some close losses has seen them stay in contention. Shirley have let their opponents concede an average of 35 points throughout the round robin, with 19 their lowest in the team’s win against University. Linwood, on the other hand, average just 21.7. It will be a large ask for Shirley to beat their Eastern rivals, who narrowly missed the top four after losing to Marist last week. However, Linwood have struggled to gain momentum this season and are yet to win more than two games in a row. The winner will play the loser of qualifying final 1.
Prediction: Linwood by 16-20
New Brighton v Sumner
Elimination final 2 (6th v 7th)
Last result: 12-10 to Sumner (June 24)
Just two weeks ago, Sumner came from 10-0 down late in the second half to win a ‘battle of the beaches’ thriller at St Leonards Square. While the Wave have had an unhealthy habit of starting matches slow this season, it seems to have been working in their favour of late. Sumner have momentum on their side following wins in the last three weeks over Christchurch, New Brighton and Burnside. However, New Brighton have had some solid wins over quality sides such as Lincoln University and Marist Albion this season. New Brighton boast a better defensive record (212 points conceded) over Sumner (306), but the Wave’s ability to win second halves could be a deciding factor in the game. Although Sumner captain Tom Ziolo will run out on to Rawhiti Domain for his 100th match for the Wave, home advantage could be the difference between winning and losing in this match.
Prediction: New Brighton by 1-5
Sydenham v Belfast
Bottom 6 qualifying final 1
Last result: 50-18 to Sydenham (May 13)
Although they are no longer in title contention, there is still plenty to play for in the bottom six. Defending champions Sydenham will be disappointed with their season, but will be a real contender for the plate following some high-scoring losses recently. The bus drivers recorded the biggest win of the season with an 82-0 thrashing of Christchurch, and handed University their first loss back in May. However, Belfast have continually improved every week and beat a solid Burnside team, 24-7 last month. Belfast come off a 43-31 loss to University, where the team scored their highest score of the season. The loser will play their final game of the year in the 11th place playoff next Saturday.
Prediction: Sydenham by 11-15
Burnside v Christchurch
Bottom 6 qualifying final 2
Last result: 48-12 to Burnside (April 29)
Burnside will be disappointed after narrowly missing out on a top eight spot following their early lead against Sumner last week. However, if the team can qualify for the plate final it will be a large turnaround from last year’s efforts where the Bombers finished last. With a young team this season, Christchurch have seen similar results to Burnside last year. They managed to beat Belfast 28-18 in May, but have finished three games with zero points. Burnside will also have a home advantage in their boggy conditions.
Prediction: Burnside by 26-30
