The government-declared drought in Canterbury and Otago last March has provided extra support, but farmers needed rain the most.
That failed to arrive until last month. Arguably, it was too late as sheep and beef farmers culled stock to stretch pastures and depleted winter crops, and brought in extra baleage, grain or other feed to supplement the shortfall, or tried to find outside grazing.
Some farmers have compared it to the 1990 droughts, but this time some do not have full winter crops to get them through.
Over the five weeks to early July farmers in some inland areas caught 50mm to 80mm, some receiving more rainfall.
"Obviously, this doesn’t make up for the rain that hasn’t fallen for the entire first half of the year," Federated Farmers North Canterbury president Karl Dean said.
"The rain we’ve had pretty much means there will be a spring flush. When spring hits the grass will be able to grow if people can keep stock off that land and there will be some grass taken off as it warms up come September time. That was a big worry if we didn’t get any rain. A dry autumn and winter going into spring with no rain is not at all easy."
Continued destocking decisions would be based on feed levels on farms.
"Technically, there just isn’t enough so I don’t envisage destocking is going to stop because we still have another [five] weeks of winter to get through and we could go through to mid-August and then have a snowfall. The rain has been great, but it just means when the warmth comes in spring we will actually get some growth as opposed to if we didn’t get the rain, but it doesn’t fix the immediate situation."
For dairy farmers the rain would hopefully mean they would not have to turn their irrigation on early and river levels might lift and lower the likelihood of restrictions for irrigation schemes.
More warm rain was needed for spring grass growth.
Mr Dean said most winter crops were low and farmers had brought feed in or sent stock away early.
Higher prices for store stock would assist, although many unfinished or excess animals had already been sent away.
"Normally, store lambs would come in and then be all finished by now and through the works, but a lot of those store lambs were sold early and the lamb carcass is down I think by 1kg to 1.5kg. So everyone selling lambs early means the works have no work and the same with cattle and now there’s a shortage effectively and [the works] will pay more to keep the plant going, which is good for people who have stock left but that is not many."
The lamb market looked promising for sheep and beef farmers but the rain, while welcome, was no drought breaker, he said.
"We’re pretty much still in the same pattern when you look at annual rainfall and we are not looking flash. On average for [the] year to date, most of us are still below 50%."
Rabobank’s monthly agribusiness report for July indicated reason for some positivity for lamb and mutton prices on the horizon even though the five-year average is down with lamb at about $6.50 a kilogram for the South Island.
Store lamb prices rose 10 cents/kg to 30c/kg, with the bank cautioning demand could yet slow next month.
Export lamb bound for China remains well back from a year ago, with demand stepped up from the European Union, United Kingdom and other nations in May.
