The market intelligence analyst unveiled his prediction after going over world livestock trends to a 400-plus audience at the Out The Gate conference by Beef + Lamb NZ in Christchurch recently.
Last year he picked the market advancing, predicting tariffs from United States President Donald Trump would end up lifting the value of imported beef.
Sheepmeat returns were also seen to rise.
“We forecasted last year [lamb prices at] $10/kg by August 2025 and it got to $10.43/kg and I had for 2026 at $10.50/kg and today in the market I believe it is $11.50/kg.’’
Beef and sheepmeat prices are at record levels and he picks the global sheepmeat price to peak in July and August and beef to peak next year in July and August.
He sees a quicker rebuild in the New Zealand herd than Australia or the United States, placing New Zealand lean beef in a position to backfill their usual orders.
The US “obsession’’ with beef and strong global demand elsewhere was in the favour of cattle farmers.
The US is New Zealand’s number one beef market after surpassing China three years ago, which is the number one sheepmeat market, followed by the United Kingdom and the European Union.
The predicted super El Nino is expected to bypass Australia as it moves north, meaning its producers will not have to offload again into New Zealand markets by avoiding the dry.
Global AgriTrends expects a wet May to July will go to a neutral August to October and back to a wet November to January.
“I see this as the catalyst to the rebuild that Australia is on the verge of. That tightening supply will follow pretty quickly by the last quarter of this year and as a result prices will move higher.’’
Mr Quilty said this could see New Zealand missing the worst of the El Nino.
Australia’s flock was falling fast, probably from 74 million to 62 million today, with the mainly female mutton kill at liquidation levels the past eight quarters, while New Zealand’s flock was contracting.
The mutton kill was expected to fall 26% this year on record mutton prices and a 22% drop in lamb slaughter in Australia with only a gradual increase the next four years.
In New Zealand, slaughter numbers are down 9% and breeding ewes 1.9% with also no sign of a rebuild.
“No wonder we are getting record prices globally, because NZ and Australia provide 80% of global exports. So I think it points to another year of liquidation.’’
As a result, New Zealand was expected to get to $12.50/kg in July and August and next year to likely $12.40/kg. This was expected to settle to a “new norm’’ $9.50/kg to $10.50/kg over the next 10 years.
Mr Quilty said the Australian and New Zealand herd rebuild had started after record liquidation in some states.
New Zealand appeared to be retaining cattle and was likely to jump ahead in its rebuild, he said.
Prime steer prices sitting nearly at $9.50/kg were expected to rise to $10.45/kg in May next year, he said.
“I see no reason prices will fall. There is nothing to cause that.’’
The United State’s obsession with protein among both Generation Z and Boomers is continuing to generate strong demand for New Zealand sheep and beef.
“The high protein diet was inter-generational. So you’ve got the Gen Zs, 13 to 28 year-olds, down at the gym and they are trying to build muscle mass. At the opposite end of the market the Baby Boomers and GenXers — that’s the 46 to 78-year-olds — they are trying to hold on to it.’’
