As the El Nino weather phenomenon takes hold across New Zealand, Otago farmers are being urged to prepare for potential pasture and water supply problems caused by dry spells.
A recent long-term Niwa forecast stated there was a 100% chance of El Nino continuing during October through to December, and the chance of it persisting through summer was forecast to be more than 95%.
Otago Regional Council regulatory acting manager Joanna Gilroy said farmers needed to consider making a plan with contingencies, and "act on it earlier, rather than later".
"Having a plan now will help to support making decisions later on.
"Plenty of thought should be given to water needs over summer, how water will be managed and what feed requirements there might be."
She said farmers should now check their irrigation and stock drinking-water systems for any faults or leaks, undertake any deferred maintenance and consider ordering spare parts.
Ms Gilroy said the council could assist farmers with management of water takes, especially if the takes became restricted in coming months.
ORC science manager Tom Dyer said Otago’s river flows and soil moisture contents were about normal for this time of year, but the forecast for the next 35 days was for slightly drier conditions than normal.
Niwa’s drought index showed no hotspots were forecast over the next 35 days in Otago, but the rainfall predictions showed the northeastern areas of the region could start to dry out.
Niwa and the Ministry for Primary Industries recently launched a new tool which can predict dryness and drought, and help farmers and growers be better prepared for challenging weather conditions.
Using the latest in artificial intelligence and long-range weather modelling, the free tool provides week-to-week predictions of rainfall, dryness, and potential drought 35 days into the future.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said the new tool was already making a big difference.
"This tool enables us to give more frequent and district-level predictions of rainfall, dryness, and drought.
"Providing advanced warning of future dry spells will be invaluable," he said.
Maniototo farmer and Irrigation New Zealand director Emma Crutchley said any forecast, short or long-term, was good.
"What we find is if we can get a more accurate medium-term forecast, then that enables us to respond, rather than working off a short-term forecast where you’re making reactive decisions all the time.
"Having as much information as we can around an uncontrollable thing, which is the weather, is really helpful to resilience in the farming business," she said.
