In the UK there is every expectation of a no-deal, leaving the UK out in the cold overnight, with no agreements in place about the future trading relationship between the UK and EU.
That would potentially represent a horror scenario too for New Zealand exports to Europe, Jeff Grant, the UK-based New Zealand red meat sector representative, said.
Mr Grant said the best hope for New Zealand exporters into Europe would be a concessionary trade deal, but it was "odds on" Johnson would not be able to salvage an agreement with the EU at the 11th hour.
"That would not be good news for New Zealand exporters. It effectively closes the UK gate to Europe and it has immediate implications for New Zealand's 228-tonne red meat quota and other agricultural exports."
Mr Grant is a Southland farm director who was appointed by Beef + Lamb New Zealand and the Meat Industry Association last year to be their "man on the ground", helping to manage the sector's response to Brexit.
After a year based at New Zealand House in London, Mr Grant said he was still no wiser as to what would happen.
"It's a bugger's muddle. The only constant in relation to Brexit is that you have a 50% chance of getting it right. Most people here are still scratching their heads and wondering how we got here in the first place and where it will end up."
Britain has been debating its membership of the EU since it joined in 1973, but the 2016 referendum provided evidence of a clear majority to leave.
Mr Grant said commercial risk management would be critical going forward, in terms of directly negotiating trade deals with the UK and Europe separately.
"But a no-deal will be brutal for UK trade. Welsh lamb, for example, will face an immediate 48%-55% tariff into France, while beef imports will likely see an immediate 20% tariff."
Producers and importers would have to be creative, he said.
"They will find a way around it - shift product around - but there will definitely be chaos at the borders," he said.
Mr Grant pegs a crash-out deal on October 31 at about a 70% chance, and believes an election is very likely post-event.
"But we don't want to get caught in the mix, so we're focused also on Europe. The meat sector, for example, has referred the split of its quota to the World Trade Organisation, so we're leading the debate and we need to be in the vanguard to ensure we have continued access into our vital markets."
- Brent Melville
