There will be 10billion people on the planet all needing to eat, and New Zealand’s export-led economy is a crucial part of this production.
The leading edge of farming has moved significantly in the past couple of years to where it is somewhat akin to magic.
The advent of collar technology and artificial intelligence (AI) combined with GPS means farmers can control grazing from an app and know if a cow is crook, lame or cycling — probably before the cow even realises it.
Fertiliser, irrigation and chemical application can be applied on farms and orchards by combining data, analytics and AI with absolute precision. The advantages of variable inputs against environmental outcomes are compelling.
The ability to have facial recognition in sheep could also result in the foundation for a step change in productivity gains. The possibilities are mind-boggling.
That said, the basics in farming remain the same. The best farmers and growers still require excellent animal and plant husbandry skills. But they will have a mountain of data and analytics to assist them with their decision making.
The good news is that unlike other industries and professions likely to be disrupted by AI, farming still has a clear future. Our produce is marketed to international recipients on the high-quality food and fibre that New Zealand is renowned for.
While I don’t profess to have a crystal ball for 2050 there are a few key trends I do see as I get around a wide variety of farms, orchards and processing facilities.
The advances in AI and analytics are obvious. Data is king. The ability to analyse and action optimal management practices is increasing at an incredible rate, only limited by affordability and openness to adoption. I’ve been blown away by the rate of uptake in the dairy industry, aided by the opportunity to reinvest in their businesses from good payout years.
Where dairy goes, beef will follow and indeed that is starting to happen. Grazing and pasture management on hill country will be revolutionised.
The advancement in processing robotics is impressive and will clearly become more prevalent on farms and orchards. Drone technology is already in widespread use.
Data analytics enable higher levels of traceability from farm to table. Increased transparency over these blockchains ensures stronger connections from producer to consumer and present an opportunity for producers to cut more of the ticket clipping along the way.
Another key trend is zero waste. Whether on farm or in processing there is a huge push towards the circular economy, turning waste into energy or fertiliser. Whether that be forestry slash into industrial bioenergy, biogas from effluent ponds, or bio-digestors turning processing waste into fertilisers. Nothing will be wasted.
Aligned to this trend is energy production. Farms will play an increasing role in renewable energy generation. We are seeing this now of course with the advent of commercial solar packages for farms, the vision demonstrated and promoted by Mike Casey with his Electric Cherry Orchard near Cromwell. Both in producing for on-farm use and for export into the grid. Energy will be an income stream in the same way as meat or apples.
Wool will of course be hugely valuable in 2050. There is a definite swing back to natural fibres.
Wool isn’t just for carpets, garments and insultation. It will be broken down into its component parts and used for bioagents. This is about to become reality and a game-changer in value creation.
Water storage will be much more prevalent. Water is gold in a changing climate and New Zealand’s competitive advantage is that we have plenty. Not always in the right place at the right time.
The government is putting a significant investment into this area at present through the Regional Infrastructure Fund, a New Zealand First initiative. This needs to continue beyond election cycles — it’s a major opportunity for climate resilience and diversification.
My crystal ball may be a bit murky but there is one prediction for which I am confident.
I have learnt through the farming stories told at the New Zealand Century Farm awards in Lawrence that while farming has changed immeasurably over the generations, some fundamentals remain the same.
These families have a driving passion for the land and for the rural communities they sustain.
Without exception, they demonstrate incredible resilience and a humble sense of pride and achievement. Just as this year’s Rural Champions have exemplified, those qualities will burn just as brightly in the rural communities of 2050.
— Mark Patterson is a South Otago farmer and Minister for Rural Communities and Associate Minister of Agriculture
