Bad news likely for investors this week

The week ahead is unlikely to bring any relief to investors around the world, with markets expected to continue to fall or stagnate ahead of a United States Federal Reserve meeting.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to signal a tougher position on inflation, that could eventually mean higher US interest rates.

The Fed's shift in tone has been closely watched by analysts.

After cutting its central lending rate by 3.25% over the past few months in an effort to reignite growth, the Fed has signalled it is unlikely to cut rates further and may boost rates if inflation gets out of hand.

In New Zealand last week, each day the benchmark NZX-50 sank to its lowest level in 28 months, although the percentage fall for the week was only slightly above 3%.

Several stocks hit multi-year lows, with Fletcher Building being the most notable.

The price of the third-ranked stock, which has given investors a great run from late 2001 by leaping six and a-half times in value, has halved since its May peak.

The NZX-50's 23% fall since a peak in October is little different from the fall of the benchmark Australian index - the S&P/ASX200.

By comparison, the Dow Jones industrial average index of 100 blue chips is down 14% from its October peak.

Both the New Zealand and Australian benchmark measures are gross indices that incorporate dividends into calculations and tend to understate the extent of the market's slump.

The NZ all-stocks capital index, which takes out dividends from the calculation, has sunk 28% from its peak in May last year.

ABN Amro Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said there was no catalyst, or earnings driver, to push the New Zealand market higher.

Each day seemed to bring more bad news on oil prices, troubles in the finance sector and the prospect of higher interest rates.

Last week, the highly-regarded Dominion Finance indicated it could be facing liquidity problems.

That caused more uncertainty for investors, he said.

"There is no strong, really positive, earnings reports.

The data coming out indicates a benign or slowing economy, and that is affecting company prices."

The New Zealand market had a high ownership by foreign investors.

When they decided to leave, company prices - including those for good companies like Fletcher Building - fell.

New Zealand also took its lead from offshore markets, particularly Australia.

"Australia has more borrowed money in the market than we do.

When it goes down, it goes down much faster because of the borrowed money."

Mr McIntyre said the current environment meant some good bargains were available.

The past five days of trading had seen falls on light volumes.

That was compounded by New Zealand being in between reporting seasons.

The June year reports would be out late July and early August.

That would provide some guidance for investors, he said.

Overseas reports said that US market troubles were being fuelled by growing worries about the banking sector.

Citigroup's warning of more writedowns from real estate losses, and a need for fresh capital from regional bank Fifth Third, heightened fears about the sector.

Gerard Cassidy, at RBC Capital Markets, said bank stocks were headed for a brief rebound from their troubles as they recognised losses from real estate investments.

"Though we expect the bank stocks to rally as much as 20% into second-quarter earnings announcements, we believe the fundamental trend is still bearish for bank stocks," he said.

 

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