Gwynne Dyer

The political crisis in Thailand is over, and so is the 10-year experiment with democracy.

"Small earthquake in Chile, not many hurt" is legendary in journalistic circles as the most boring headline of all time. Well, there has just been a very small political earthquake in Canada, leaving no visible casualties at all.

About two years ago, I realised that the military in various countries were starting to do climate change scenarios in-house - scenarios that started with the scientific predictions about rising temperatures, falling crop yields, and other physical effects, and examined what that would do to politics and strategy.

The United States National Intelligence Council's report on global trends, published this month, predicts that the terrorist organisation al Qaeda "may decay sooner" than many experts expect because of its "unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions".

On one side are the eight navies, the world's largest shipping companies, the rich Gulf states that need to get their oil to market and the great powers, whose commerce depends heavily on the shipping lanes around the Horn of Africa.

United States President-elect Barack Obama inherits the in-box from hell, but an all-points crisis like the present one also creates opportunities for radical change that do not exist in more normal times.

The brawl in the Ukrainian Parliament last week was an undignified ending to the country's two-month political crisis, but something important has changed.

Mating is a notoriously tricky business for porcupines, but even the first date is an awkward transaction. Likewise for prickly customers like China and Taiwan: when a high-level Chinese delegation arrived in Taiwan earlier this month for landmark talks on closer relations, the Taiwan police even prevented people on the roads into Taipei from waving Taiwan flags in order not to hurt the visitors' feelings.

President-elect Barack Obama has inherited the in-box from hell, but you could practically smell the fear in some other quarters as he listed his top priorities in his victory speech in Chicago: "two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century".

What lies in wait for the first black president of the United States of America?

When the Hutu regime began murdering the minority Tutsis in industrial quantities in 1994, France did not abandon it.

Korea is not a tropical country. In the autumn, the leaves turn yellow and red, and by October the process is pretty far along, especially in North Korea.

Speaking on Friday, President George W. Bush assured Americans and the world that the medicine was working: the recent $700 billion rescue plan for Wall Street would restore order in the markets.

The main purpose of British generals, it sometimes seems, is to say aloud the things that American generals (and British diplomats) think privately but dare not say in public.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was well aware that he resembled the generals who join a peace movement as soon as they retire.

This is not the crash of 1929 revisited, and we are not heading into a second Great Depression.

Scientists have their own way of putting things.

decided to wipe out the private owners of its biggest and most important financial companies and replace them with state-appointed bureaucrats".

The good news is that United States President George W. Bush is not going to invade Iran before he leaves office.

"We have a deal," said Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of Zimbabwe's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), last week.