Subdued reports expected from bank giants

Three Australian banks which own banks in New Zealand are expected to have a ``relatively subdued'' second-half reporting season, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms says.

Craigs was forecasting a fall in cash earning growth for ANZ of about 1.8%, a fall of 1.5% for National Australia Bank and a rise of 1% for Westpac.

``We expect investors to focus on the outlook for margins, commentary about further action on costs and any comments on dividend outlook, given elevated payout ratios.''

Craigs had a buy recommendation on Westpac and NAB, he said.

NAB, the owner of the BNZ, was expected to report cash earnings of $A3.17 billion ($NZ3.4 billion) on Thursday, down 1.5% on the first-half's restated $A3.2 billion.

The fall was likely to be driven by net increase growth of 0.8%, reflecting average interest earning asset growth of 2.5% and a matching decline of 0.3% half-on-half, Mr Timms said.

Revenue growth was likely to have risen 0.8% versus operating expense growth of 0.1%.

``We expect a flat final dividend of A99c-per share, although we continue to believe the payout ratio is unsustainable at these levels.''

Craigs had increased its target price to $A29.60 a share from $A29.20, broadly based on the midpoint of its valuation of $A28.73 a share.

The main down side risks for NAB included subdued lending growth, a reduction in margins driven by elevated funding costs and competition in business lending and higher bad debt charges if economic conditions deteriorated, he said.

ANZ was expected to report cash earnings of $A3.32billion on November 3, down 1.8% on the first half. The dividend was expected to be A80cps.

The fall in earnings would be driven by growth of total loans of 1.5% half-on-half, reflecting low returns in Asia and Australia, modest growth in Australian housing and strong growth in New Zealand, Mr Timms said.

The 0.5% growth in costs, reflecting lower personnel expenses - due to the reduction of staff - would be partially offset by higher amortisation expenses.

The target price of ANZ had increased to $A28.6 a share from $A27.70 a share.

The main risks included further impairments in the Insto APEA business, subdued markets activity, resulting in lower institutional income, a further increase in competition in institutional lending eroding margins and an increase in deposit competition, resulting in margins falls.

Westpac would report on November 7 and Craigs was forecasting the bank to deliver second-half cash earnings of $A3.9billion, up 1% on the first half, Mr Timms said.

Westpac had strong lending growth of 3.2% due to above-average Australian housing and business lending growth observed recently.

Craigs had maintained its share target of $A34.10 for Westpac. The risks for the bank included higher capital requirements, higher bad debts from near-cyclical lowers, lower lending growth, a reduction in margins driven by elevated asset competition and a reduction in its treasury and trading income.

 

Comments

No dividend forecast for Westpac?