Uncertainty still affecting housing market

Auckland house sales and new listings are showing a lack of urgency. PHOTO: THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD
Auckland house sales and new listings are showing a lack of urgency. PHOTO: THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD
The combination of regulatory changes and uncertainty about the new Government continues to affect the Auckland housing market, which will have flow-on effects for the rest of the country.

Barfoot and Thompson figures for December pointed to a firming in the Auckland housing market in late 2017.

However, the firming was expected to be temporary.

Commenting on the latest Barfoot and Thompson house sales data, ASB economist Kim Mundy said the Auckland market remained soft relative to historical standards.

A lack of urgency among sellers appeared to have supported prices in December.

New listings had been volatile but there were no signs of sellers jumping into the market to sell their homes ahead of regulatory changes, she said.

Data showed 790 Auckland houses sold in December, up from 718 in November but down from 825 in December 2016.

December was usually a soft period in the housing market. But after adjusting for normal seasonal variations, there was a rise in prices and sales over the month compared with November 2017. The rise in prices corresponded with the downward pressure on borrowing rates late last year.

Ms Mundy said sellers appeared to still be cautious by not listing property if they could help it.

The lack of urgency to sell could also reflect why prices remained firm in December.

The release of the Real Estate Institute's house price index would be analysed to confirm those price signals.

The numerous uncertainties on the horizon made it hard to ascertain the underlying direction of the market, she said.

``We are not expecting to get a clear steer on the direction of the market until after the summer months.''

Timing and further details on further government tax regulations could also influence activity in coming months.

As this stage, policy uncertainty could continue to weigh on parts of demand, particularly investors.

There was limited up-side to house prices, given stretched affordability, Ms Mundy said.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said looking at the longer-term trends, a softening in conditions over the past year remained apparent.

Despite their recent firming, sales were still well down on levels seen over the past year. Price growth had flattened off and the stock of available listing continued to climb.

``We expect that the housing market will continue to slow over the coming year in response to concerns about changes in government policy and pressure on borrowing rates,'' he said.

Barfoot and Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said normally when sale numbers fell by such a large percentage, prices retreated from their record-high levels. That had not occurred, and prices had continued to rise modestly.

``It underlines there is still buyer support at current prices,'' he said.

``In part, this was aided by the recent release of new capital values by the council, as sellers and buyers have the same information as to the potential value of a property.''

Barfoot and Thompson sold 674 homes in December, in line with the number sold each month for the previous three months.

The average sales price for December, $939,871, was 2.6% higher than the average for the previous three months and the fourth-highest on record.

The median price in December, $870,000, was 3.6% higher than that for the previous three months and the second-highest on record.

The measures progressively introduced by the Reserve Bank, a more prudent approach to mortgage lending by the trading banks and a growing apprehension among buyers as to the prices being paid probably all played a part in the cooling in the market, Mr Thompson said.

``At the same time, a housing shortage when the population is growing creates demand.''

In Australia, last week was flat for state capital city house prices, although the continued drift in Sydney meant they dropped on a monthly basis.

Home values, excluding auctions in the week to January 7, were steady as slight falls in Sydney and Perth offset a marginal gain in Brisbane, according to preliminary figures released yesterday by property data group CoreLogic.

On a monthly basis, home prices across the combined five capital cities fell 0.4%, dragged down by weakness in Sydney's housing market, which dipped 0.7% in the month.

Melbourne was slightly more resilient than the harbour city, sliding a mere 0.2%, while Perth also declined, down 0.4%.

Brisbane and Adelaide rose 0.1% and 0.2% in the four weeks, respectively.

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