Virtually all of this will be derived from nuclear processes: nuclear fusion in the sun, with a very minor component from Earth’s nuclear fission.
Of that, 80%-82% will be derived from fossil fuels, a product of the sun’s fusion energy creating sunlight to fuel photosynthesis in plants as proto fossil fuels during the Carboniferous period and Mesozoic era.
Hydro-power, wind, photovoltaic and biomass are ultimately powered by nuclear fusion-derived solar energy.
Electricity from nuclear power stations is derived from nuclear fission, as is geothermal energy originating from nuclear fission in the Earth’s core.
The exception to nuclear processes is tidal power.
Within this portfolio of energy-generating options there is a hierarchy of safety.
At one extreme is the consumption of fossil fuels, accounting for 4.2million deaths annually from outdoor air pollution, (World Health Organization figures) as well as their massive contribution to climate change.
This pollution predisposes to heart attacks and strokes as well as lung disease.
At the opposite extreme is nuclear fission where safety is paramount.
Since 1954, we have had over 20,000 reactor years, three accidents and 31 reported direct deaths, the latter all from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
This has also caused 1800 cases of eminently curable thyroid cancer, potentially preventable had iodine tablets been dispensed and an indeterminate number of indirect deaths.
This disaster arose through the confluence of poor technology and human error, involving a sub-optimally designed Russian RBMK reactor coupled with a botched experimental shutdown.
One design deficiency inter alia, is the absence of an external shell.
Subsequently, the EU has made conditional to Bulgaria, Lithuania and Slovakia, that they decommission their RBMK plants to gain access to the EU.
No radiation deaths occurred in the Three Mile Island (1979) or Fukushima (2011) accidents.
Ranking the various modes of electricity generation in terms of lives lost per unit of energy generated compared to nuclear, coal results in 2000× deaths, biofuel 50×, gas 40×, hydro 15×, solar 5× and wind 2×.
Despite this, nuclear power generation has stalled.
In 2010, there were 439 operable nuclear reactors: in 2026 we have 440.
Although producing 9% of global electricity, as electricity is 22% of the energy matrix, they contribute 2% of global energy.
Construction of nuclear power plants peaked during a boom between 1970 and 1990.
It then declined following the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 and the Chernobyl disaster seven years later which led to stricter regulations, increased costs and public opposition.
The quest to ensure nuclear reactors be very, very, very safe rather than just very, very safe has backfired.
It has resulted in older, less safe plants remaining operational longer than intended.
Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore now endorses the use of nuclear energy, as did the late British scientist James Lovelock.
He recommended ‘‘to use nuclear — the one safe, available, energy source now or suffer the pain inflicted by an outraged planet’’.
Nuclear fuel, although finite, is abundant, especially potentially using thorium, which abounds, particularly in India.
Using ‘‘breeder’’ reactors, ‘‘fertile’’ elements such as thorium and uranium 238 can be rendered ‘‘fissile’’ by the addition of a neutron.
‘‘Spent’’ nuclear fuel is manageable, initially being stored on site in deep water tanks.
It can later be stored in designated repositories such as Yucca mountain in Nevada.
The volume of high grade nuclear waste and its container from a typical 1000MW plant annually is a cube 3m×3m×3m.
However, even if social licence is granted to expand nuclear power, is this possible logistically?
To phase out fossil fuel consumption we would need 40 times more than the present 440 reactors, that is 17,600 reactors.
Costs range per reactor, from $US8.5billion ($NZ14.4b) for a clone to $US17b for a first of a kind, equating to a minimum of $US149.6trillion which is 20% more than global GDP.
Fortunately, if this is spread over the 50-80 operating years life of the plant, it becomes an affordable 2% of GDP and will create a safer world for our descendants.
- Ian Breeze is a retired surgeon.
