Debating while the world watches

The United States presidential election is now just a few short weeks away, and Republican challenger Mitt Romney has suddenly found himself surging ahead in some polls that - until the first presidential debate - had him trailing behind incumbent President Barack Obama.

Mr Romney's campaign had been - until then - largely a series of gaffes. While seen as embracing the far right of the political spectrum, he has also fought against Democrat accusations he is a tax evader and an exporter of US jobs to low-wage economies, and the perception that as a Mormon he is somehow unsuitable to lead the world's largest democracy.

In the modern world, televised debates can make or break election campaigns. Voters hungry for a quick fix can sometimes seize on sound bites to help them make up their mind about voting.

Further complicating the US televised debate was the introduction of the much-feared "worm", in which a studio audience has some sway on the outcome by immediately indicating its favourable or unfavourable views of what the candidate is saying. New Zealand's United Future leader Peter Dunne will fondly remember the debate in which the worm turned for him and he came from nowhere in opinion polls to be the leader of a party of MPs.

Mr Romney scored well last week when the candidates debated domestic policy. Mr Obama looked and sounded flat; gone was the fire he used in 2008 to destroy Republican hopeful John McCain.

Mr Romney flew straight from the debate in Denver to a celebration rally in the crucial swing state of Virginia amid a blitz of headlines about his lightning switch from insipid campaigner to stellar debater. The pale and listless version of Mr Obama who took the stage in Denver was unrecognisable as the one-time purveyor of hope and change who inspired so many - so much so that even sympathisers were left wondering whether he wanted the job.

Since the debate, Mr Obama has looked revitalised. His campaign has admitted failures in their preparation for the debate and the delivery of his message (former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark set a day aside for preparation before an election debate, and the results showed). This week, Mr Obama has been speaking at fundraising events and has almost raised the magical $US1 billion figure for his campaign, something previously thought unachievable.

Messrs Obama and Romney obviously both have the financial reserves to flood the media with all sorts of negative advertisements about each other in the last days of the campaign. But it is the debates that will bring the two men into the front rooms of America.

The next debate - being held next week - will be on foreign and domestic policy, topics that will be of interest to policy- makers in New Zealand and Australia.

Mr Obama is US-centric in his view of economic growth, believing jobs can be grown if the US protects its industries from cheaper overseas alternatives.

Mr Romney, already known to have shipped some of his own business operations offshore, might be seen as more flexible to trade without overbearing restrictions.

The development of economic policy and trade boundaries in the US is of prime global importance. The US Federal Reserve is printing money and buying up financial assets as a way of stimulating the economy. The US is substantially in debt to China and has a huge trade imbalance with the Asian giant. Protectionism is starting to again emerge.

How the next American president handles the continuing aftershocks of the financial crisis is likely to define global economic growth for possibly a generation. As such, the second of the three scheduled debates between the two men will shape the rest of the campaign, and possibly even the next four years.

A revitalised Mr Obama will take the attack to Mr Romney, who will need to defend his position.

In the heat of the debate, policy affecting most of the Western world will be discussed and possibly even shaped. The world will be watching with interest.

 

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