No need for despair

Donald Trump.
Donald Trump.
Global leaders reacted as they should after United States President Donald Trump announced the United States would  withdraw from  the Paris Agreement on climate change — with dismay.

Mr Trump, in keeping with a campaign promise to protect American jobs, announced in Washington he will withdraw the US from the landmark 2015 global agreement to fight climate change.

Supporters of the accord condemned Mr Trump’s move as an abdication of American leadership, an international disgrace and a monumental foreign policy blunder. His predecessor Barack Obama expressed regret over the decision he was instrumental in brokering.

But while global leaders expressed their disappointment, Mr Trump’s Republican supporters applauded his decision as another significant blow to the Obama administration’s assault on domestic energy production and jobs.

Mr Trump is turning the US into one of the most isolated countries in the world with his trade protection position, and now climate change. However, it should be noted he is at least keeping to the promises made to the people who voted for him last year. Recent surveys show American voters are becoming more aware of the need for actions on climate change, but Mr Trump was not dissuaded.

With the US out of the Trans  Pacific Partnership trade agreement, the mantle of world leadership is being passed to China. China indicated it is prepared to step up its efforts to address rising emissions, something the rest of the world will welcome. A sudden rise in the industrialisation of China means its main cities are covered in smog most of the time, causing health problems for millions of people.

It is unlikely the remaining 194 countries which signed up to the Paris Agreement will follow the lead of Mr Trump. New Zealand has reaffirmed its support for the accord.

Individual US states, such as California and Oregon, have already indicated they will continue their efforts to get 100%  of their electricity from renewable sources while potentially tightening maximum allowances for carbon. Other states are likely to follow. Mr Trump says his Administration will begin negotiations either to re-enter the Paris Accord, or to have a new agreement on terms fair to the US, its businesses, its workers, its people and its taxpayers. He in particular complained about China’s terms under the agreement.

The decision by Mr Trump is another sign of splits behind the scenes with his senior advisers. In the end, the moderates lost  and Mr Trump went with the "we’re getting out" line.

The US will cease payments to the United Nations Green Climate Fund, in which rich countries commit billions of dollars to help developing countries deal with floods, droughts and other impacts of climate change.

Scientists say there is already a global shift towards renewable energy, quite independent of any international agreements. Coal is unprofitable in the US for simple economic reasons, nothing to do with climate change. Even major oil companies, like Exxon Mobil, are moving to address climate change in their long-term plans.

BusinessNZ says businesses do not have the luxury of  ignoring climate change if they want to remain competitive in world markets.

What happens from here will be of major interest at all levels. The accord, while extremely important, will be secondary to the ambitions of China and the European Union.

Mr Trump is leaving a political vacuum into which China and the EU are already stepping.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Australia and New Zealand next week reminds everyone the US needs its international allies. However, by putting "America First", Mr Trump is reminding domestic populations in the rest of the world what is good for America is not necessarily good for their own countries.

Forging alliances with an unpopular US administration may not be easy. New and younger leaders such as Canada’s Justin Trudeau and France’s Emmanuel Macron stepping up to take on both Mr Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin means the global order is changing.

This unfortunate setback, as it is being called, is no need for despair.

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