Now the real talks begin

Winston Peters
Winston Peters
The release on Saturday  of the official election results means the real talks about the future shape of the next government have started in earnest.

Preliminary talks were held last week between New Zealand First and its potential coalition partners National and Labour. The talks were brief and to the point, if we believe what NZ First leader Winston Peters says.

Ground rules were established and some areas of negotiation were established. Pointedly, Mr Peters met  families of Pike River victims, giving them hope the mine will finally be explored to find any remains of the dead miners.

On Pike River, Labour, the Green Party and NZ First agree. National wants to remain in power so much it will also agree. When pushed into a corner, bottom-line policies suddenly become areas for negotiation on all sides.

Mr Peters has criticised the media for saying he is holding the country to ransom, not as relevant as it was in 1996 when he took two months to negotiate a final agreement. The MMP environment means Mr Peters does hold the upper hand, as seen from a distance, despite only having about 7% of the votes. But MMP is a fairer way for an electoral process. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel is likely to spend six weeks forming her next government as she pulls together — with less than 40% of the vote — a five-party coalition involving the Greens and a business party. If a coalition can be formed by Mr Peters’ self-imposed tight deadline of this Thursday, it will be nothing short of miraculous. The country has not stopped. Public officials are keeping everything moving along as if a government is, in fact, in operation.

Five days to form a government is not impossible, but it will be difficult unless Mr Peters does accept how few votes his party received and is prepared to offer concessions, rather than demands. He says the timeline is realistic and reasonable. The haste may mean NZ First understands the hand it has been dealt. A minister, or ministers, outside of Cabinet is something it needs to consider.

As the Otago Daily Times has previously emphasised, there is no guarantee NZ First will form a coalition. Other options exist, such as sitting on the cross benches and providing a major party with support for legislation on a case-by-case basis. Such an arrangement is not the most suitable option for a stable government and New Zealand risks facing another election in less than three years, possibly in about 18 months.

What does concern many people is how the negotiations are being held —  behind closed doors. Having open negotiations is a two-edged sword as it prompts vocal minorities advocating their various positions.

However, the negotiating teams will be wise to ensure the platforms they were elected on are reflected very closely in the final coalition agreement.

The Greens, for all the hopes and dreams of members wanting  to influence Labour, are likely to be disappointed. The party did have an option to go with National but to do so would have split the party irreparably. The party has stuck with Labour, which will lead the talks with NZ First. The Green negotiating team may be brought in later. By staking its future only on Labour, the Green Party has no bargaining power.

This week, only three parties will matter and it will come down to the strength of the various negotiating teams. Labour and National both have skilled back-room negotiators on their teams but Mr Peters is not to be underestimated.  He  stresses the process needs to be approved democratically by his team,  his caucus and the party in general. No-one truly believes that statement. His aim in 2017 will be to create a legacy for 2020 and beyond. This will be his bottom line. 

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