Checking out the home stretch

Chiefs hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho on the charge. PHOTOS: NZ RUGBY/SMARTFRAME

Super Rugby Pacific is in the home stretch. The Highlanders have only one game left before their bye in the final round.

Can they make the playoffs? How will the top six look? Hayden Meikle attempts to answer those questions.

The Highlanders

Hope is a good thing.

The Highlanders are obviously rank outsiders to beat the rampant Hurricanes in Wellington tomorrow night.

One team is at the top of the table with 50 points, 10 wins from 12 games and a points differential of plus-280.

The other is eighth with 24 points, five wins from 13 games, and a points differential of minus-80.

Ruben Love and the Hurricanes are running hot.

Crazier things have happened, but when you weigh up those numbers and remind people the Hurricanes won 50-7 (ouch) the last time the teams met, there is only one sensible prediction to make.

For the purposes of this exercise, though, we have to imagine the Highlanders are indeed blessed by the rugby gods and duly charge to a shock win over the Hurricanes.

They may need to get the bonus point (for scoring three more tries than the Canes). If they get an ordinary old four-point win, that ties them on 28 points with the Reds, who have a better points difference as it stands.

Basically, a whole lot needs to go right for the Highlanders, who would still need several other results to go their way even if they were to claim victory in Wellington.

They would need the Waratahs to lose both their remaining games (home against Brumbies, away against Force), the Reds to lose both their remaining games (away v Moana Pasifika, home v Fijian Drua), the Force to lose in Perth against the Drua and the Fijians to win both their games but with no bonus points.

Something something hope.

Highlanders talisman Timoci Tavatavanawai has done everything possible to keep his team in the hunt.

The final rounds

Hurricanes (50): v Highlanders (home), v Crusaders (away)

Chiefs (45): v Crusaders (away), v Blues (home)

Blues (38): Bye, v Chiefs (away)

Crusaders (32): v Chiefs (home), v Hurricanes (home)

Brumbies (29): v Waratahs (away), v Moana Pasifika (home)

Reds (28): v Moana Pasifika (away), v Fijian Drua (home)

Waratahs (26): v Brumbies (home), v Force (away)

Highlanders (24): v Hurricanes (away), bye

Force (22): v Fijian Drua (home), v Waratahs (home)

Fijian Drua (20): v Force (away), v Reds (away)

Moana Pasifika (4): v Reds (home), v Brumbies (away)

The playoff prediction

Hard to see much changing at the top of the table.

The Hurricanes will likely beat the Highlanders with the bonus point, meaning they have one hand on the minor premiership before the final round, while the Chiefs cannot be caught for second.

It is possible the Blues will not get another point, so the Crusaders will be keen to win both their remaining games, which are at their fancy new stadium but are against the two best teams in the competition.

The Brumbies are a decent show to nudge past the Blues into third, thus guaranteeing a home playoff game, while the Reds have the kindest draw.

The Waratahs have lost three of their past four, and the Force have won three of their past four and get two games in Perth, while the Drua just cannot be considered a chance due to their dreadful record on the road.

Moana Pasifika will literally cease to exist when the whistle blows in Canberra in the final round.

The Highlanders? My calculations suggest ninth. But something something hope.