The national carrier will report its full-year results on Thursday and ABN Amro Craigs broker Chris Timms is expecting a much improved second-half result.
He is forecasting a profit before tax of $106 million for the six months ended June, substantially up on the $14 million reported for the six months ended March.
However, the 2009 second-half profit would still be about 20% down on the previous corresponding period (pcp).
The full-year forecast profit of $120 million would be about 60% down on the June 2008 profit.
"Air NZ's ability to fly counter-cyclical to the rest of the economy and generate positive earnings momentum in the second half reflects a unique set of circumstances.
"During 2008, Air NZ aggressively cut capacity to mitigate high oil prices. Oil prices receded but we believe the capacity reductions leave Air NZ well placed to deal with the next crisis - recession and demand destruction."
ABN expected the combination of capacity shrinkages, lower fuel prices and favourable currency and fuel hedging to flow through into 2010.
Those benefits should offset the fall in passenger numbers and RPK (revenue passenger kilometres) volumes, Mr Timms said.
This week would be busy for the markets with most sectors covered as companies reported their June results, he said. Only the retail sector was not represented.
Today, energy company Vector is expected to provide a lift to the market with a forecast operating profit of $438 million coming in more than 7% ahead of the pcp.
Brokers expect the electricity division to have performed well on the back of significant price increases implemented last year and this year. The prices increases are expected to comfortably offset the expected fall in customer contributions and slightly lower volumes.
Tomorrow, Tourism Holdings Ltd and New Zealand Farming Systems are due to report, with falling international tourism numbers expected to push THL into a loss for the year.
Forsyth Barr Broker Suzanne Kinnaird has forecast a loss of $2.8 million, well down on the forecast $8 million profit.
Long-haul visitor arrivals trends remained negative and there had been a sharp fall in in-bound European and United Kingdom tourists.
During the past 18 months, THL had realised more than $55 million from asset sales which would help strengthen its balance sheet and enable it to be more competitive in the tourism market, she said.
International operator Nuplex is due to report a substantially reduced profit on Thursday, Ms Kinnaird is expecting the reported profit of $30 million to be down 44% on the previous period.
The full-year result would confirm that the "precipitous decline" in global resin demand experienced in the first half of the financial year had stabilised, albeit at a depressed level.
There were likely to be tentative signs of recovery in some markets, Ms Kinnaird said.
Mr Timms is forecasting Skellerup Holdings to report operating earnings of $24 million for the year ($33.4 million pcp), falling to $8.14 million after interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation was accounted for ($14.7 million).
"Since the profit warning issued in early April, the market expectation of a possible capital raising has intensified and the share price has suffered. A robust recapitalisation programme could see a resurgence in the share price."
On Friday, Auckland International Airport would also give some indication of how visitor numbers were holding up through New Zealand's largest gateway airport.
Mr Timms is forecasting a reported June profit of $104.1 million, flat with the pcp.
"It has been a tough five months for Auckland airport post the March strategy day, with earnings downgrades relating to retail revenue and the decision to defer aeronautical fee increases.
"Given a below-trend actual passenger growth relative to that forecast, we were of the view that the airport's decision to defer the increase was more about an olive branch to customers than mitigating the risk of an over-recovery on regulated returns."
The company's decision to withdraw its High Court judicial review of the fees seemed to support that, Mr Timms said.
Other companies to report this week include GPG, New Zealand Oil and Gas, Pike River Coal, Delegates and PGG Wrightson.
