Business and confidence surveys released next week

Business and consumer confidence surveys, plus some second tier economic data, will feature on the business agenda next week.

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's quarterly survey of business opinion (QSBO) is due on Tuesday followed by the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey of consumer confidence on Thursday.

The Bank of New Zealand-BusinessNZ performance of manufacturing index (PMI) index for June is also due on Thursday.

QSBO - one of New Zealand's leading economic indicators - provides insights into how firms are responding to current economic events.

In its last QSBO report, the institute said economic activity went sideways in the March 2012 quarter, suggesting a gradual and patchy economic recovery. The pace of recovery was modest and had not accelerated in the past nine months.

Since then, Statistics New Zealand has released data showing that economic growth went ahead by 1.1 per cent in the March quarter, about double market expectations, with manufacturing and agriculture featuring strongly. The last ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey, released in mid-June, showed that consumer confidence had eased across the board.

Thursday also sees the release of the ANZ's newly-introduced Truckometer, which aims to provide an insight into likely growth trends in the economy by measuring truck traffic. The last Truckometer report showed traffic volumes rose 3.3 per cent in May as warmer weather and late-season dairy production lifted demand.

Statistics NZ will release electronic card transaction data for June on Tuesday.

Its accommodation survey is due on Wednesday, followed by the food price index on Thursday.

Homeowners will be looking to Real Estate Institute house price data for June for confirmation that real estate prices are once again on the move.

Thursday's PMI is a monthly survey providing an early indicator of levels of activity in the New Zealand manufacturing sector. The index for May stood at 55.7, up 7.5 points from April and a return to levels of activity seen in February/March.

ASB economist Christina Leung said the week's data releases will provide a guide for market watchers.

"They will provide pretty useful indicators as for how growth will track in the coming months," Leung said.

"Growth has been recovering, which his quite encouraging, however we expect that growth over the coming months will be at a much more modest pace than we saw for the first quarter," Leung said.

On the international stage, minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due out next week, which analysts will keenly dissect for clues as to whether another quantitative easing is on the cards.

At the week's end, all eyes will be on China when it releases second quarter GDP, retail sales and industrial production data.

A Reuters poll published on Thursday showed economists expect the data to show China's economy expanded in the second quarter by 7.6 per cent from a year earlier, its weakest performance since the 2008-09 global financial financial crisis.

That would be down from 8.1 per cent in the first quarter for the sixth straight quarter of slowing growth, and would be just above Beijing's 2012 growth target of 7.5 per cent.

 

Add a Comment