Much besides GDP data to digest in week's economic releases

GDP data out on Thursday will be the main financial event this week but there are plenty of other things to digest, Craigs Investment Partners broker says.

The latest GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) auction will be released early tomorrow morning.

The last auction reflected a slightly softer pricing environment. The headline GDT index was down 1.5% compared with the previous auction, reducing the year-to-date gain to 12.4%, he said.

Milk powder, the most important of the dairy commodities for New Zealand, was down 1.1%.

GDP figures would be released by Statistics New Zealand at 10.45 am on Thursday.

Mr Timms said markets were expecting growth to slow to 0.5% for the quarter and 2.7% on an annual basis, below the forecasts contained in the last Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank.

Annual growth of 2.7% would be the equal lowest seen since 2013 - in line with the third quarter last year - and well down on the peak of 4.4% annual growth from the June 2016 quarter.

``We will be watching for evidence of a more subdued private sector on the back of a slower housing market and policy uncertainty, possibly a bigger contribution from the public sector, and a robust showing from agriculture.''

Migration figures would be released on Friday.

In April, net migration fell to 4930, slightly above the three-year low from February this year. Annual net migration was 67,160, the lowest since March 2016 and down from a peak of 72,560 in July last year.

However, it remained very strong, compared with the 10-year average of 30,468 a year.

Some of the first activity indicators covering June would be out later in the week when flash Performance in Manufacturing Indices were released.

Japan would be first out, at noon on Friday. Corresponding measures from Europe would be released on Friday night and overnight Friday, Mr Timms said.

Last month's PMIs reflected softening conditions in both Japan and Europe.

Following the trifecta of central bank releases last week, the Bank of England would report this week. No changes to policy settings were expected at Thursday's meeting.

Tomorrow, the Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index would provide an update on how confidence had fared in the face of changing conditions in the economy, including the housing market slowdown.

 

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