Otago dips despite buoyant Dunedin

The Cadbury Chocolate Carnival drew thousands of tourists to Dunedin. Photo: Peter McIntosh.
The Cadbury Chocolate Carnival drew thousands of tourists to Dunedin. Photo: Peter McIntosh.
Events such as rugby games, festivals and conferences are boosting economic activity in the Otago region, with Dunedin feeling the benefit, Otago Chamber of Commerce chief executive Dougal McGowan says.

However, the ASB Main Report has dropped Otago three places to sixth on its regional rankings, saying the lack of snow for the Winter Festival might have dampened the party mood in Queenstown.

The tighter lending restrictions might also spoil the mood further over the remainder of the year.

"Indeed, with the region’s consumer confidence low over the quarter, we’ve placed Otago’s four-star rating under review," ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said.

Mr McGowan was surprised by the comments, saying  he was struggling to understand the reasoning behind them.

"Just because it’s not going off in Queenstown doesn’t mean it is not happening down here."

The chamber chief executive reeled off several statistics and comments he had heard from his members in the past three months.

Retailers had been experiencing good sales, despite the region not having population growth through higher immigration, he said.

The increase in foot traffic when the Chiefs rugby team came to play the Highlanders was outstanding and during the All Blacks-Wales test, food and beverage sales soared.

The Cadbury Chocolate Carnival drew tourists from outside the region to Dunedin and the Local Government New Zealand conference brought delegates and money into the city, Mr McGowan said.

"All these events create a bit of buzz around the city. You can call me ‘Peter Positive’ most of the time but we are doing very well. Confidence is high."

Even niche retailers in some of the more difficult markets of art and jewellery were reporting increased demand and sales.

There were issues surrounding the future of retail in Dunedin and  zoning but Mr McGowan said he was heartened by everyone engaging and talking about the future.

It was an important issue to get correct.

Low interest rates were also helping the Dunedin property market, as house prices rose, he said.

The city was in the middle of a construction boom as numbers of both private houses and larger commercial buildings soared.

Dunedin had been helped by warmer winter weather than some other years,  but Mr McGowan understood why the Main Report noted the lack of snow in Queenstown.

Mr Tuffley said the Bay of Plenty economy continued to shine on all fronts.

"The Bay’s key drivers remain strong this quarter, with guest nights up a staggering 26% for the year. Once again, the region’s seasonal kiwifruit and horticulture exports are buoyant."

While  the region’s housing market was charging ahead on the price and construction fronts, there were signs  it might come to an end.

Nelson proved to be the biggest mover on the scoreboard, jumping to fourth place thanks to the housing market, he said.

Outside of housing, Nelson was a mixed bag.

The region continued to ride the nationwide tourism wave, but retail sales were down on this time a year ago.

Canterbury retained its four-star rating with Mr Tuffley calling it the enigma on the scoreboard.

On one hand the region kept its rating, reflecting the robust level of activity.

On the other, the pace of activity continued to slow as demonstrated by Canterbury’s 14th position in the quarter’s adjusted rating.

In particular, the retail sales sector was in retreat.

"We expect the slide in growth to continue through the year before the economy adjusts to more normal activity levels over the years ahead."

Southland moved up to mid-table in the rankings.

Mr Tuffley said the prolonged dairy slump had consigned  the region to  the bottom three in the past quarter but fortunes had turned.

In particular, Southland car sales numbers surged in the June quarter as the region topped the rankings in the category.

House sales and guest nights were also strong.

The remaining sore point was consumer confidence, the second-lowest in the country, he said.

"With dairy prices turning in August, we expect that to give the region a shot in the arm over the remainder of the year. Southland [should be able] to hover around mid-table in the scoreboard rankings over the rest of 2016."

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